One major result of adaptation of Russian economy to new conditions prevailing after the fall in world oil prices, was the gradual transition to a new model of development, I’m sure the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.
“The economy is starting to find a new model of development”, — said Nabiullina on Monday at a joint meeting of the three economic committees of the state Duma (quoted by TASS).
The head of the Central Bank also stressed that “the previous economic model based on exports of raw materials and boosting consumption, including consumer loans, have been exhausted”, reports “Interfax”. According to her, is manifested in “the attenuation of growth” in the years preceding the crisis and the fall in oil prices.
Nabiullina noted that the experts of the Central Bank has documented the incipient signs of economic recovery and in the next year, expect a small GDP growth of the country. However, in the absence of structural changes, the growth rate of the economy, according to the head of the Central Bank in the coming years will remain below 2%.
“The recovery may be stretched in time, as the factors [of economic growth] should be different than before the fall in oil prices. We all know this, and are talking about changing the behavior of the economy, the model of its development”, — said Nabiullina, noting that the situation in the different sectors of the economy and different regions of the country remains unstable.
The task of the Central Bank Nabiullina called the maintenance of the transition process and ensuring stable financial conditions for the “formation of domestic sources of investment.” However, to act in this matter, according to her, should with caution and without undue haste, to mitigate the terms of reference did not have to pay ordinary Russians.
“Ideas about a too rapid reduction of interest rates, pumping up the economy with cheap money, on concessional financing of selected projects, in our opinion, dangerous. This can lead to higher inflation, depreciation of the income and savings of the people,” — said Nabiullina (quoted by “Interfax”).
She also warned that such policies not only will not help the economy to move to a new growth model, but on the contrary “can have already discovered to be ineffective the current model”.
“Then, according to our calculations, there will be recession and we will remain with nothing, and our country will lose time that could be used to create the conditions for true sustainable growth”, — said the head of the Central Bank.
In early October of 2016, speaking at the forum “Russia calling!” Nabiullina said that Russia needs a new savings and investment — an economic model in which the investment will “transform” savings.
The transition to the investment growth model became the basis of the target scenario of socio-economic development of Russia until 2035 developed by the Ministry of economic development. Under this scenario, improving the business climate, support non-oil exports, as well as cost reduction and revenue growth of the companies should accelerate the pace of GDP growth to 4% by 2019.