Moscow. 14 Nov. The U.S. economy probably will enter a new era with the advent in the White house Donald trump, who was elected last week President of the United States, writes The Wall Street Journal.
Republican policies may lead to increased rate of economic recovery in the U.S., rising interest rates and inflation, as well as the emergence of new risks, including the threat of international trade wars, noted newspaper interviewed experts.
Expectations of faster economic growth associated with the campaign statements of trump’s intention to cut taxes and increase investments in infrastructure – these measures involve significant amounts of government stimulus.
The consensus forecast of analysts conducted by the WSJ, suggests the us GDP growth of 2.2% in 2017 and 2.3% in 2018, when the positive effects of fiscal stimulus will be more visible. In the past 12 months the growth rate of U.S. GDP is about 1.5%.
Inflation, according to experts, will grow by 2.2% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018. Thus, the forecast indicates the first period of sustained inflation above 2% from 2007-2009.
Data are based on a survey of 57 academics, business representatives and financiers, held from 9 to 11 November.
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The experts ‘ forecasts for GDP growth, inflation and interest rates in 2017 and 2018 has improved, at least slightly, in comparison with the October survey, writes the WSJ.
The analysts noted that their predictions are preliminary.
Most economists believe that tax cuts, especially if it is not accompanied by expenditure cuts, will support economic growth in the United States in the short term.
The Republican leaders in Congress support reducing taxes and easing regulation. However, it is unclear whether they support the plans of Donald trump to restrict immigration and trade, as well as a sharp increase in infrastructure costs.
About 43% of the economists surveyed by the WSJ indicated the possibility of trade wars as a major risk for the U.S. economy.
The introduction of U.S. tariffs on imports of foreign products will lead to spiral growth of trade barriers, increase import prices and shrinking markets for American exporters, experts say.
The probability of a recession in the U.S. economy over the next 12 months is estimated to be 20%. These expectations decreased slightly over the past three months, but higher than a year earlier (14%), writes the WSJ.