presented a ranking of the fastest growing companies in Russia. It is published for the third consecutive year, this time it included 50 companies. To be ranked, companies needed to increase its revenue in the last three years at least 20% per year. Total revenues of the participants of the rating at the end of 2015 decreased by 44% compared to the previous year, amounting to 1.5 trillion rubles.
But the participants of the new rating grew faster than last year: they showed an average revenue growth of 68%, and their predecessors — only 53%. There are two main factors that contributed to this, says the Professor of business and managerial strategy Institute of business studies Ranepa Emil Martirosyan. The first factor is the transition of companies to innovative business models, and the second structural changes within companies. “They increasingly transformed from the operational holdings in investment funds, which require lower operating costs, but large investments in specific projects,” explains Martirosyan.
The country has become more money in comparison with 2014, which helped to accelerate the pace of growth, says the President of “OPORA Russia” Alexander Kalinin: because of the budget deficit (2.6% of GDP in 2015) in the economy has attracted more funds from the reserves, besides the decreased outflow of capital (in 2.6 times, according to the Central Bank). More rapid growth was facilitated by the development of import substitution and measures to support exports, said Director of the Center for monitoring the development of industry, Vice-President of “Business Russia” Ilya Semin.
“In times of crisis always has two trends. Those who fall, fall hard. But those who are in the period of crisis is growing, and generally grow the fastest. Always open some new niches, even in the domestic market. And the second story is the continuing crisis means the continuing decline of the ruble, which is beneficial to the exporters”, — said the Deputy Director of the Institute of analysis of enterprises and markets of the Higher school of Economics (HSE) Svetlana Avdasheva.
The smaller the revenue, the faster it grows
Why average revenue increases, but the total size of participants was less than last year? The company has become smaller: if a year earlier the profit of an average enterprise rating was 52 billion rubles, now it’s RUB 29 billion Less in ranking and became companies with revenues greater than 100 billion rubles (four, not six, as in the previous year). Revenue — the first thing that suffers in a crisis, and it is not surprising that its growth from large companies has slowed, especially those that are growing through mergers and acquisitions, and through the sale of its goods and services, says Martirosyan. One of the reasons for its reduction, according to experts, high key rate of the Central Bank in early 2015 it was at the level of 17%, although in August and decreased to 11%. And most of 2014, the size of the key rate was 5.5 to 10.5%.
Beginners are easier to grow quickly in those conditions that are favorable to them but detrimental for the larger enterprises indicates Avdasheva. Medium-sized companies better adapt to changing economic conditions, agrees Semin, and large enterprises more difficult to move quickly due to the complex management system.
It is difficult to simultaneously grow quickly and long, according to the ranking . This year he updated the composition of 75% compared to the previous year (the same rate as the updates were in 2014). And hold in all three ratings at all, only managed three companies: Antipinsky oil refinery, a network of cheap shops Fix Price and alcohol, the retailer’s “Red and white”. It is a universal situation in the world: plus 20% a year in revenue is very high growth, and show them many years very difficult, said Avdasheva.
Relatively small companies to grow easier — they are more dynamic, while large enterprises accounted for only to defend already conquered positions, emphasizes Kalinin. To grow quickly every year, you need to “generate superannuation ideas”, and sooner or later face the crisis of growth, to overcome which it is necessary to alter a decision tree, describes Semin from “Business Russia”.
Oil and gas instead of trading
What growth areas are most significant? The last two years, it was retail trade — its share was almost half of the total revenue of participants of a rating . But the trend has changed. If 2013 and 2014 the retail trade turnover, according to Rosstat, increased by 3.9 and 2.7%, respectively, in 2015 he collapsed for the first time since 2009, with just 10%. And the contribution of retailers to the revenue of the participants of the rating has dropped to 18%, although in numerical terms they its office kept. In previous years, the retail could have a little play due to sanctions and the food embargo: trade networks began to occupy vacant niches, says Svetlana Avdasheva, but now this effect is already exhausted.
After the fall of retail on the first place left the oil and gas sector. However, its share is not as great as in past years, trade networks, only 21%. Commodity companies have volatility of earnings less than, for example, from the same retailers, since their revenues are generated through long-term contracts, said Martirosyan. The decline in the purchasing power of even 1% leads to a fall in the incomes of trading networks by 10-15%, he estimates, and revenues of oil and gas companies and will continue to grow by inertia from the previously concluded contracts for another two or three years.
On the one hand, oil companies have adapted to new economic conditions — they continue to receive sustained benefits from the depreciation of the ruble, and on the other — other industry have tumbled because of the crisis, said Avdasheva. And the most affected industry was real estate development: total revenues included in the rating compared with the previous year decreased significantly — from 204 billion to 36 billion rubles devaluation of the ruble, which has helped oil and gas companies, I was struck by the retail and development, says Semin, is due to the reduction of income people started buying fewer goods and real estate.