The state Duma adopted in the first reading the draft law on the Federal budget for 2017 and the following two years. According to the document, budget revenues in 2017 scheduled in 13,4876 trillion rubles., expenses — in 16,2408 trillion So the deficit will be about 2,7532 trillion rubles, or more than 3% of GDP. In subsequent years, the budget revenues are expected to grow and the expenses and the deficit is reduced.
To cover the deficit in 2017 is expected due to the use of the Reserve Fund (in the amount of 1.15 trillion) and the national welfare Fund (in the amount of 668,2 bn). The result is a Reserve Fund by the end of 2017 will be completely exhausted, and NWF will consist of 4.19 trillion rubles.
The draft budget based on world oil prices of $40 per barrel. The average rate of the dollar against the ruble in 2017, as planned, will amount to 67.5 rubles, in 2018 — 68,7 rubles in 2019 71.1 per ruble. Inflation in 2017-2019 years, is expected to be 4%.
The government itself characterizes the 2017-2019 budget (annual budget after 2016, the government returned to a three-year budget cycle) as a conservative, postadoption and mobilization. In particular, in the explanatory note to the draft budget, the government estimated it as “mobilization” (in terms of revenues) and budget savings (in terms of expenditures), reported. The package of measures of fiscal consolidation by about 70% consists of “optimizing costs and increasing their efficiency”, while measures to mobilize revenues account for about 30%, explained the government. This should allow to reduce the budget deficit from 3.2% of GDP in 2017 to 1.2% of GDP in 2019.
This fiscal structure was criticized by the expert institutions. For example, the economic faculty of Moscow state University in its opinion on the draft budget recommended to build a budget is not in principle Pro-cyclical and counter-cyclical to stimulate the economy and increase the budget deficit when the economy is experiencing weakness and fiscal consolidation to postpone until will resume sustainable economic growth. But the Finance Ministry believes that now just need such a restrictive budget as a Foundation for stable and low inflation, stable exchange rate, stable business expectations.
The draft law “On the Federal budget for 2017 and the planning period of 2018 and 2019 years” was submitted to the state Duma on 28 October 2016. In the press service of the Cabinet of Ministers noted that the key characteristics of the budget for the next three years calculated on the basis of the main indicators of the forecast socially-economic development of Russia in 2017-2019. It is expected that the second reading of the bill on the Federal budget will be considered by the state Duma at the meeting on 7 December, in the third reading on 9 December.
After the government submitted a draft budget to the Duma, the document has not changed — it only evaluated the faction, the house Committee and the budget Committee invited experts from leading Russian institutions. At the end of the project, the budget Committee recommended to the government to seek additional funding for health and education (in particular, to include in the budget funds for a major project of the leader of United Russia Dmitry Medvedev — the construction and reconstruction of schools; now the money is in the project is not mortgaged). In addition, from the government for more money to support small businesses, industry, company towns, agriculture. Deputies also recommended to dramatically increase budgetary lending to regions whose debts exceeded 2 trillion rubles.
These and other recommendations are based on the priorities identified for the budget United Russia. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at the meeting of the Duma on Friday, has repeatedly confirmed that the government is willing to find sources for additional funding for these priorities. What additional funds will be able to count the priority projects in the Duma resolution said.