Large speculators in USA, which typically include banks and hedge funds, fully turned betting on the weakening of the Russian currency. Short speculative futures positions on the exchange rate (traded on the Chicago stock exchange CME) for the last reporting week ended November 22, reduced to zero — the last trader has closed 140 short positions after the victory of Donald trump on the American elections, the statistics Commission futures trading USA (CFTC), released yesterday.
The last time rates the hedge funds against the ruble was zero five years ago, in November 2011, the CFTC statistics. Last month, short positions on the ruble was at the level of almost 14 thousand contracts, equivalent to 34.7 billion rubles.
“In a world of negative rates and sales in many emerging markets after the victory trump ruble is considered as one of the most attractive instruments for carry trade (the earnings on the difference in interest rates. — ) “—says a senior economist at Danske Bank Vladimir miklashevskii. Many people buy the ruble, particularly against the Euro, with promising 9-12 months, and for purchasing Russian other ruble-denominated assets, he said .
Despite the fact that the ruble has fallen over the last month and a half (in mid-October the dollar on the Moscow exchange was worth 62 rubles, and now almost 65 rubles), with the beginning of the year Russian currency still strengthened by 13.3% (source: Bloomberg terminal). This is the best result after the Brazilian real among the currencies of developing countries. The ruble may rise in the coming weeks, wrote analysts at Sberbank Investment Research, although their previous forecast of strengthened to 61 rubles per dollar by the end of 2016 “is now considered too ambitious”.
Long positions of speculators in the ruble, implying a gain if the ruble declined for a fourth week in a row, including 18% (about 4.8 thousand contracts) for the last week, data from the CFTC. In December, the Federal reserve may raise the key rate, given the signs of improvement in the us economy and the upcoming the rise to power of trump, whose plan for infrastructure investment could accelerate inflation. Participants of the market of futures for rate FRS estimate the current probability of a December rate hike at 93.5%, follows from the data exchange CME on 29 November. The rate hike by the fed as a whole will weaken the currencies of developing countries.
Even despite a rate hike by the fed, the operation of the carry trades with ruble will not lose appeal in 2017, according to analysts Morgan Stanley, who recommended a long position on the ruble, Bloomberg reports today, citing a survey the Bank. In turn, Sberbank Investment Research analysts do not exclude that the dollar/ruble reached a new low in the current year (previous was reached October 10 — accounting period 61.92 rubles). But the dynamics of the ruble will depend on the outcome of the OPEC summit on November 30 and from privatization of “Rosneft” (to be held until December 5) and how it will be financed, they warn.