The exchange rate does not show a significant increase after the OPEC agreement to reduce oil production, analysts say. For a week he can go up to 62 rubles/$, which would be his “ceiling”, they believe.
News that the OPEC countries failed to achieve progress at the talks in Vienna on Wednesday, November 30, raised in the first three hours nearly 9% of Brent crude oil prices to $51,4 per barrel, follows from data exchange ICE. The dollar on the Moscow exchange fell on the background of the news by almost 1.8% compared with the opening level, to 63,97 RUB oil Production by OPEC countries will be reduced by 1.2 million barrels per day from January 1, said later at the press conference, OPEC President Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada. After the official confirmation of the reduction of production growth in oil prices accelerated again, to nearly $52 per barrel.
“It seems that world markets are not completely satisfied with reducing the volume of production: before, there were a lot of predictions that if OPEC agree on production cuts, the oil will rise to $55 per barrel,” — said the chief analyst of Nordea Bank Olga Lapshina.
The reduction of oil production by 1.2 million barrels a day allows you to remove all the excess raw materials on the world market, says the head of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev. “The whole problem is just that even the potential shortage of oil on the market can be immediately compensated by the shale producers from the US,” he adds. Therefore, OPEC’s decision is likely to allow oil prices to permanently stabilize near $50 a barrel, but not higher, says Evstifeev.
According to him, this means for the ruble strengthening to 63.5 rubles./$, — this mark he can achieve this week. According to Lapshin, oil prices can take a long time to freeze in the corridor of $50-55 per barrel, which will strengthen the ruble to RUB 62-63/$ during the week. Volatility in the foreign exchange market will not be, she believes.
Assessment Lapshin and Evstifeeva, the ruble strengthened after the meeting of OPEC, has not seriously cheaper until the end of 2016. The ruble will not weaken and almost inevitable rise in interest rates, the fed at the meeting on 14 December, analysts say. “Market expectations that the rate will be increased 100%, but in the quotes it has already been incorporated and the ruble will not weaken,” says Evstifeev. Now the basic interest rate, the fed is 0,25-0,5%, it was increased to this level in December 2015.