Link: who will be the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin


“Cool macroeconomics”

President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday, 30 November, appointed a new head of the Ministry of economic development — a 34-year-old Maxim Oreshkin, until recently, held the position of Deputy Minister of Finance. Now he is the youngest Minister in the Russian government. for a month under the head of the Ministry of communications Nikolay Nikiforov (though, Nikiforov became Minister, when he was 29 years).

A graduate of the Higher school of Economics (HSE), Maxim Oreshkin has made a rapid career. From 2002 to 2006 he worked at the Central Bank, worked his way from an economist of the first category to the head of the sector. Then he made a seven-year hiatus in the civil service — from 2006 to 2013 he worked in ROSBANK, Credit Agricole CIB and “VTB Capital”. Officer. again began in September 2013, occupying the position of Director of Department of strategic planning of the Ministry of Finance. A year and a half he was promoted to Deputy Minister.

Man, who knew. including the work of the Central Bank, says that as a young man, nothing particularly memorable. “But later clearly manifested itself, growing everywhere came. Very positive man who knows the economy and can quickly make informed decisions,” says the source .

The appointment. was a complete surprise — the media called a lot of candidates for the post of head of Ministry of economic development released after the arrest and dismissal of Alexei Ulyukayev, but the name. never sounded. Even the Deputy Minister Evgeny Elin, who performed the duties of head of Department after the arrest of the speaker, the arrival of. surprise, he confessed to Elin journalists in the state Duma, however, he did not doubt that the new chief will be “a great Minister”.

Before the appointment … and Elinym, according to the latter, not met and plans for the future “a Cup of tea” was not discussed. Sam Elin for the post of head of the Ministry did not claim, in particular, because not a macroeconomist. . — “Cool macroeconomics” and “extremely good specialist,” said now his former boss, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.

Jump VTB

Maxim Oreshkin is the only native of “VTB Capital”, moved to a financial-economic bloc of the government. To. to the Ministry of Finance left the former chief economist of “VTB Capital” Alexey Moiseyev (Deputy Finance Minister) and former investment Bank analyst Nikolai Podguzov is now the Deputy Minister of economic development. In 2015, the Department of strategic planning of the Ministry of Finance was headed by another former chief economist of “VTB Capital” Vladimir Kolychev. Close to VTB was considered and the former Minister of economy Alexei Ulyukayev.

Acceptable to all

The Ministry of Finance and Ministry of economic development has often differed with each other in their views on the budget. More likely, these contradictions have manifested in preparing the budget for the next three years: the office of the speaker three times preparing the official forecast of socio-economic development to fit the needs of the layout, and the Minister (now under house arrest) said that in the end, it laid a “utility” parameters. The powers of the Ministry of economic development in the past years, eroded the new powers of the Ministry of Finance, its role in the preparation of the budget has decreased, recalls the chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. After the appointment. it is expected that the confrontation between the two ministries will be replaced by cooperation, she said.

. — “Good macroeconomist, he went to school of the Ministry of Finance”, said the Deputy Chairman of Sberbank Bella Zlatkis. This is a man who “joined” opposing the Ministry of Finance and economic development, said Dean of the economic faculty of Moscow state University Alexander Auzan. “When we are talking about reform programs — that is. as the Deputy Minister of Finance, has formed a very good offers that were quite acceptable to the Ministry of economy. He does not possess what is often blamed financiers, excessive conservatism,” Auzan.

The appointment promises. “synergy” the economic development Ministry and Finance Ministry, which was not enough, the head of “OPORA Russia” Alexander Kalinin. It is unlikely that it will mean an understatement of the role of the Ministry of economic development, but the new and previous jobs. will be more close approaches, such as, for example, now the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank, the head of the Economic expert group (EEG) Evsei Gurvich. “If people in the Ministry of Finance managed to find common language with people of completely different formations and quenching, presumably, will be able to do it and the Ministry of economic development”, — said the source , who worked with his Best in one of the commercial structures.

While working in the Ministry of Finance Maxim Oreshkin has managed to establish itself “as a hard man, prone soberly and conservatively assess the situation”, and if he doesn’t leave his principles with changing jobs, we can expect convergence of ministries, I agree Alexander Suslin of the EEG. But, she stipulated, in his new post he can change the rhetoric, because each Ministry has its own priorities.

What was the bet the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of economic development

The tax burden

Anton Siluanov (Finance Ministry), 23 September 2016: “We expect an increase in withdrawals from this [oil and gas] sector of about 50 billion rubles annually in severance tax”.

The Minister (of economic development), June 17, 2016: “From the point of view of taxation we need to put all these exercises on the deteriorating tax environment in oil and gas sector and to allow colleagues to work quietly and to earn money”.

Privatization

Siluanov, 12 Oct 2016: “we do not have large volumes, big plans for privatization (for 2017-2019. —). I think that together with colleagues from the Ministry of economic development during the next budget cycles, we are definitely going to touch, because if this year we hope to sell big packages, then the next until we have a plans are quite modest.”

Ulyukayev, 12 Oct 2016: “I don’t quite agree with my colleague (Siluanov. —) the fact that we’re going to lower privatisation activity, yet it is not so. We have a lot of good assets in the reserve, some of them included in the privatization plan, and this applies to the “Sovcomflot” and our port facilities”.

Budget

Siluanov, June 19, 2016: “Now the reduction of the budget deficit is a key task. If we spend more than 2 trillion rubles from the reserve funds to Finance the deficit, then next year we have no such opportunity”.

Ulyukayev, June 17, 2016: “we Have a large range of possibilities. I personally believe that we will not have used the Reserve Fund. <…> We have an opportunity, I believe, such a careful and controlled reduction of the budget deficit with the rate of 0.5% per year. That is, to reach 1.5% by 2019”.

Pensions

Siluanov, September 23, 2016: “the Ministry of Finance does not provide for defrosting in 2017 formation of the cumulative part of the pension.”

Oleg Fomichev, Deputy Minister of economic development, 30 Sep 2016: “We feel the need to start defrosting. The system, offered by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank — it is normal, but as a voluntary, optional”.

Appointment. — a positive because he knows the market, says Orlov. “A young, promising, intelligent person” — describes the new Minister President of “Business Russia” Alexey Repik. In his opinion,. is “the expressed policy of staff renewal”. “He hears the position of business, and I think that the economic development Ministry and the Finance Ministry will largely work as a team”, said Kalinin. The new Minister is a “constructive practices”, he has energy, knowledge of foreign experience and a willingness to listen to suggestions, praise him and first Vice President of Gazprombank Denis Shulakov. “Its exceptional feature — it runs great discussion, perfectly convincing, but at the same time flexible enough to be able to accurately and quickly if you need to understand and accept other points of view”, — says Oreshkin people who worked with him in commercial structures. “The appointment of the head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin is a good decision. Right” — briefly commented on Twitter, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.

With the development of long-term economic strategy for Russia now is not the Ministry of economic development and the Center for strategic research (CSR) Alexei Kudrin. And now the question is whether the MAYOR under the leadership of new ambitious Minister to offer the program and how it will be aligned with the CSR program, says Orlov. “It is a question of the political weight of different figures,” she said. Kudrin more experience, so the Ministry of economic development is unlikely to compete with CSR, but it is disorientation to the market, because it is not quite clear on which program to navigate, says Orlov.

“Firing position”

But not all accept assignment. unambiguous optimism. Business Ombudsman Boris Titov, traditionally critical of the government, saw it as a confirmation that the Cabinet “is not going to change the course of monetary authorities and will continue a tight monetary policy, financial compression”. The question is, will it turn … “from the “accounting” logic to the logic of development of economy”, because “if in the near future do not do decisive steps, the point of no return and will go stagnant and the gap will become irreversible”, he concluded.

Now the situation in the MAYOR “can not be worse” because the country had neither a clear economic policy, no strategy of economic development, said an investment banker in one of the state banks. “With the arrival of people from the team siluanova there is a chance that in the economic bloc formed a conglomerate with the participation of the Ministry of Finance and, possibly, the supporters of Alexei Kudrin, who [conglomerate] would be more effective than is now the MAYOR,” he notes.

The top Manager of the American investment Bank said that “you had to be an idiot to agree to such a firing position.” Apparently, . because of his personal ambitions simply could not say “no,” he says.

First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov will present. the staff of the Ministry of economic development on Thursday morning, a day after the President’s address to the Federal Assembly, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev will present to his government. In it, however, Oreshkin “already know”, said the head of the Cabinet.

With the participation of Svetlana Bocharova, Svetlana Dementieva, Marina Bozhko, AB koshkarova, Maria Istomina

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