The increase in world oil prices has accelerated amid growing investor confidence that held in Vienna OPEC summit, agreement is reached on reduction of volumes of oil production. Approximately at 15:00 MSK futures price for Brent oil for delivery in February 2017 on the ICE for the first time since October 25, 2016 exceeds $51.
On the maximum cost of a barrel of Brent reached the level of $51,4, by 8.62% above the closing level of the previous trading session.
Previously, experts of Commerzbank called the rise in oil prices above $50 per barrel is unlikely.
“We believe the most likely outcome of the meeting is small, with only 700 thousand Barr./day, reduction of production, which Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Persian Gulf, if necessary, can hold his own. However, for this to work, other OPEC members have to promise not to increase production. To prices have risen to levels above $50 per barrel, it is necessary to cut production more than on 700 thousand Barr./day, and this will require the participation of other countries, which is very unlikely,” — noted in Commerzbank forecast.
Experts Commerzbank also noted that in case of failure of negotiations at the summit of OPEC, oil prices could fall to $40 a barrel.
A new jump in oil prices has given additional impetus to the strengthening of the ruble. The dollar on the Moscow exchange for the first time last week fell below 64 rubles to RUB 63,97 that 1,1425 RUB below the closing level of the previous trading session. Simultaneously, the Euro fell to 68,1275 RUB.
Analysts warn that in the absence of a sharp fall in oil prices due to the breakdown of negotiations in Vienna, the dollar may also rise sharply.
“In this case, the ruble will quickly fall to 66 rubles per dollar, then the decline will continue. Rate can reach 68,5–69, a particularly strong drop could be next week, as the market will react to a likely tightening of monetary policy in the United States,” — said the Deputy Chairman of the Board Loko-Bank Andrey lyushin.
To 15:20 MSK cost of a barrel of Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was $51,23, the dollar on the Moscow stock exchange have been adjusted to 64,1125 Euro — RUB to 68,1575