Repetition: Putin has not found a new economic initiatives


About the zero level and changes in taxes

The President acknowledged that the main causes of the crisis in the Russian economy are primarily related to internal problems, not geopolitics and the external environment. He repeated the warning that economic growth could get stuck near the zero mark, if not start new growth factors, is about this threat, Putin said in the message a year ago, in may 2016.

The President has put before the government task to develop by may 2017, a plan that allows you to get on the pace of economic growth above the world average by the 2019-2020 years. Previously, that was actually revived Economic Council, which is headed by ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, and created a presidential Council for strategic development and priority projects. Center for strategic research Kudrin earlier estimated that the reforms Russia’s GDP will annually grow by 2-2,5% in the medium term, and by 2025-2030 can accelerate up to 4-4,4%, that is, on the level of average rate or higher.

“We have ourselves who can teach”: 25 quotes from Putin’s message

The development of non-oil exports, the success of agriculture, the expansion of free enterprise and the need to reduce the pressure of the security forces in business all these ideas sounded in the message of Putin a year ago.

Unlike last year’s speech, Putin this time a lot of appealed to figures and statistics, reading them with some difficulty. In addition to the traditional references to inflation, which for the year “significantly reduced”, and foreign exchange reserves, which “has not decreased, but even has grown up,” Putin said about the “very good performance” the military-industrial complex. The issue of the defense industry, according to him, this year will grow by 10.1%, while labour productivity in the sector is 9.8%. The President also said that in 2016 the share of civil products of the defense industry will be 16%, and by 2030 at least 50%.

In the message the first time Putin personally announced the upcoming changes in the tax system, which have already reasoned, the Ministry of Finance and first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov. And if a year ago, the President stressed that in the coming years the tax conditions for business should not change, but now he actually began to prepare businesses and the public to change. According to him, in 2017, the new tax ideas should be considered in conjunction with the business, in 2018 to make the necessary amendments to the laws, and in 2019 (i.e. after the current moratorium on tax changes), they should begin to act.

The President of Russia Vladimir Putin during his speech with the annual address to the Federal Assembly in the Kremlin

Photo: Pavel Golovkin/AP

However, no specifics Putin has not offered, directly saying only about the need for streamlining fiscal incentives — eliminating inefficient tools and more targeted conservation incentives. Treasury annually loses from tax exemptions of 1.7 trillion rubles, said earlier the Higher school of Economics (HSE) with reference to estimates of the Ministry of Finance. At the same time, according to Putin, the solid preferences will not. It benefits, as the President said, played a “significant role in the support of IT-companies”, which increased its exports in half and eventually to give more money to the budget.

The most important of Putin’s message: that the President has charged to the government

It is unlikely that the government decides to change the income tax, the payment of which face the majority of Russians. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said earlier that the authorities will discuss the transition to a progressive scale after 2018, but after the message announced that in favor of working for many years flat rate. And former Deputy Siluanov Maxim Oreshkin, the day before appointed Minister of economy, did not answer reporters ‘ questions on tax reforms.

About lending and infusion

The President touched upon the situation in the financial sector; talking about her, he was not too wordy. He supported the proportional system of regulation of banks (due to open in 2018): division of credit organizations into three groups — systemically important, and universal banks with a basic license, specializing in lending to SMEs and individuals — with a proportionate regulatory burden. This theme was announced by the Central Bank in the summer (originally the banks were supposed to be divided into regional and Federal, but later decided was to divide banks on the basis of allowable operations).

Putin briefly mentioned the need to develop non-banking financial sector. “I hope that the Bank of Russia and the government will jointly work out proposals for the development of the financial market. Everything should be focused on the problem of economic growth,” he said. However, after obtaining the status of a mega-regulator and so precisely does the Central Bank.

Yeltsin, Putin or Medvedev: guess the President’s message. Test

Criticism of Vladimir Putin was awarded with the approach of banks to lending to the real sector. According to him, while lending to the economy demonstrates stability, despite the banks just for this purpose in 2015-2016 large amount of state support. Via OFZ in the Bank capital has poured nearly 1 trillion rubles. “This resource has allowed banks to significantly increase lending to the real sector. However, the volume of such loans in the current year has not increased, but even declined. I know about the calculations in rubles, foreign currency. But the decline still occurred, even with the exchange rate difference,” the President said.

Banks that have received Federal loan bonds in the capital should increase lending rate of at least 1% per month or 3% per quarter (sanctions for failure to comply with this requirement imposed for the quarter).

As reported by “Kommersant”, the first two offenders can not cope with the task, appeared at the end of the first quarter. A number of banks made this year’s staging of the monthly failure. However, the mass non-compliance in the lending to the real sector is still out of the question. How serious is the situation now — the official statistics does not show the DIA.

Addressing the Parliament, the President touched not only the problems of economic development and Finance. In terms of performances regarding social policy, the head of state touched upon the issue of telemedicine. He suggested that within two years to connect to high speed Internet all Russian hospitals and clinics. Legalization of telemedicine can occur in the first quarter of 2017, and in 2018, the remote care of patients will provide for 25% of public health organizations. The forecast is contained in the road map, which were detailed.

In the political part of the message Vladimir Putin has emphasized the theme of reconciliation and unity of the nation, but without concrete proposals of political reform, more on that in another material.

 

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