Analysts at the Swiss investment Bank Crédit Suisse recommend investors to invest in the ruble in 2017, follows from the review of the Bank’s “Conflict of generations”. The least attractive from the investment point of view they called the Turkish Lira.
“The ruble is the currency with huge potential in 2017. It is manifest in the case — and, I emphasize, that in case of the weakening of geopolitical tensions, increased activity of Russia in the international arena and maintaining stable oil prices,” — said the chief investment Manager of the international division for managing capital affluent clients Crédit Suisse Michael O’sullivan.
Last week, the senior consultant of investment strategies and research at Crédit Suisse Robert Parker in the TV channel “Russia 24”, said the ruble is undervalued currency. “We need to stabilize her, he said. — It will be good for export. It is also good to the Russian markets and the ruble were in good correlation with the foreign [currency]”.
Among the main risks for investors worldwide Parker called the economic situation in the United States and the results of the presidential elections in November, a victory which is unexpected for the markets was won by Republican Donald trump. This is also confirmed review of the “Conflict of generations”: if the fed at the upcoming December meeting, will raise the key rate if the administration trump will simplify tax policy (we are talking about reducing corporate taxes, which will contribute to the return of the profits of American companies in the United States. — ) the dollar will go up relative to other currencies, and in 2017 it falling against other currencies which occurred in 2016, is not likely to happen again.
“No one is satisfied with a strong dollar. On the course effect the so-called effect of trump,” said Parker.
In their view, the fed tightening the strongest impact on the Asia-Pacific region and, to a lesser extent the currencies of the countries of Europe, Middle East, Africa and Latin America, “which generally provide a higher yield and still have a relatively attractive valuation”.
The analysts of Crédit Suisse have slightly improved the forecast on growth of world GDP in 2017 from 3.1 to 3.4%, warning of serious differences between the indices of different countries and regions.
“A strong dollar will put pressure on other currencies. On the other hand, I think that the prospects for other currencies, other markets will be good. Developing countries and the ruble will play a big role. He played much of the losses incurred over the past 2.5 years,” said Parker. He predicted the growth of Russian GDP in 2017 is 1.7%, but “somewhere in the future will be more than 2%”.
A positive assessment of the ruble and the Russian economy and give analysts the largest commercial Bank in Denmark Danske Bank. In 2017, the Russian economy can show growth for the first time in two years, say analysts at Danske Bank in his review (). According to their forecasts, in 2017, the GDP growth will be 1.2% (year-on-year) in 2018, and 1.4% amid rising oil prices and the Bank of Russia on monetary policy easing. Economic recovery will contribute to the sustainable strengthening of the ruble, believe in Danske Bank. Inflation is expected to reach the target of 4% by the end of 2017, they said.
“Although our base scenario does not foresee the lifting of sanctions against Russia in 2017, a softening of rhetoric from Brussels and Washington against Moscow could contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. At the same time decreasing but still steady positive balance on current account, reducing the outflow of capital and deleverage the banking and corporate sectors to mitigate the risk that is a potential increase in the key rate of the United States in 2017. Finally, the price of oil by the end of 2017 is expected to reach above $50 per barrel”, — said in the review.
In mid-November to invest in the ruble is recommended that Deutsche Bank, figuring that trump relationship between the U.S. and Russia will improve, which will strengthen the attractiveness of the ruble as an investment tool compared with other currencies of developing countries.