The output of the “pit”
The increase in the number of migrants in Russia returned to the level of 2012-2013, according to the monitoring, prepared by experts of the Russian Academy of national economy and public administration (Ranepa), Russian foreign trade Academy (rfta) and the Gaidar Institute. The report is available . The document notes that foreigners “used” to the economic situation in the country.
From January to September 2015 the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants migrant workers accounted 196,5 thousand people, contained in document data of Rosstat. This means that there is a tendency to exit from the “migration of the pit”: in 2015, the number of visitors who stayed in Russia amounted to 161 thousand.
The output of the “pit” was made possible thanks to a threefold increase in the number of migrants from Tajikistan (19.4 per thousand) and due to the fact that I stopped the outflow of citizens of Uzbekistan (last year went by 17.2 thousand persons more than has arrived; in 2016 in Russia were 14.2 thousand people). The main migration donor for Russia was the Ukraine: visiting there make up almost half of the total migration growth (93 thousand persons). However, compared to the previous year this figure decreased slightly in 2015 in Russia was delayed by 105 thousand immigrants from Ukraine. The influx of migrants from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus and Moldova continued gradually to decline.
According to the interior Ministry, as of November this year in Russia legally were 10.2 million foreign citizens and individuals without citizenship.
Adaptation to the cheap ruble
If in 2015 the absolute number of foreigners in Russia declined throughout the year, but this year returned to the previous dynamics of the seasonal migration, the report said. The number of visitors started to grow in April and by September reached a peak. The researchers believe that this is evidence “on the original “addictive” foreigners to the Russian economic situation.”
The authors of the monitoring indicate that migration almost completely ensures the growth of the population of Russia, but visitors will cover only 15% loss of population of working age.
“We are already 10 years the observed decline in the working age population of one million per year and will continue to watch it until the end of the decade,” — said in a conversation with the head of the laboratory of migration of Institute of economic forecasting Russian Academy of Sciences Zhanna Zayonchkovskaya. According to her, the visiting workforce is not enough even in the capital.
The problem of illegal migration remains: as the purpose of entry “work for hire” indicate 4 million people, but patents only get 2 million 900 thousand have the right to work without permits (citizens of countries-members of EAEU). Work on what grounds the others, is unclear.
“The migrants have nowhere to go — the President of Fund “Migration XXI century”, the former Deputy Director of the Federal migration service Vyacheslav Postavnin. — They have the same crisis. From the fall of the ruble jobs in their home countries has not increased. And rebuild migratory flows, say, the middle East is a problem because it was full of Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, more willing to work hard for a small fee”.
According to him, the short period of the real reduction of the migration flow was in 2014 and he was associated with the new legislation — the introduction of the patents and the rules of stay in Russia.
Another trend, which capture the authors of the monitoring, the ongoing decline in the number of expatriates from developed countries of the West. Since 2014 they became smaller by almost 60%. Visitors from Germany was three times less in comparison with 2013 (116 thousand against 352 thousand), the 80% reduction in the number of Spanish citizens (16 million versus 77 million) and the US (53 million versus the 220 million). The maximum outflow of expats for UK: it of the natives in 2016, there are about 30 thousand, while in 2013 there were 174 thousand due to the fact that the depreciating ruble has made it unprofitable for foreigners working in Russia.