United Russia, the Governor of the Pskov region Andrey Turchak, “the old” Valery Shantsev of the Nizhny Novgorod region, Orel Governor Communist Vadim Potomsky, the head of the Samara region Nikolay Merkushkin and the Governor of Buryatia Vyacheslav Nagovitsyn became outsiders annual ranking (have) experts of Fund “the Petersburg policy” and “Minchenko Consulting”. These heads of regions received the lowest scores — 2 points. Merkushin, in particular, blamed “issues surrounding the legitimacy of voting in the elections to the state Duma”.
Two plus compared to three years ago coped Viktor Basargin, head of Perm Krai, as well as his colleague from the Saratov Valery Radaev and “rolled” over the year “losers” Sverdlovsk Governor Yevgeny Kuyvashev. The latter, according to experts, lost “points” in front of an approaching termination of the mandate.
Turchak in the list of outsiders was last year, but your post saved. The total number of governors-“losers” grew up. Since the publication of the previous rating of 26 November last year from their positions left two of the three governors with a rating of “2” — Vladimir Gruzdev (Tula region) and Andrey Shevelev (Tver oblast), the study said. Lost their jobs and the “Threeness” of last year’s rating of Sergey Yastrebov (Yaroslavl oblast) and Konstantin Ilkovsky (Zabaykalsky Krai).
A rating of arrests
For the first time as a separate application to the ranking of survival of governors, a list of regional officials, who was prosecuted or against whom criminal cases are investigated. Most of all “prisoners” were in the Perm edge — four, among whom were all current Ministers of the regional government. Is the Minister of transport Diamond Zakiev, the Minister of physical culture and sports Pavel Lyakh, head of the regional Ministry of information and communications Evgenie Baluev and the Minister of construction and housing Viktor Fedorov.
Four detainees from the Khabarovsk territory, and two officials held high positions and led the two ministries in the past. We are talking about the former Chairman of the regional government Sergey Ignatovich, another Deputy Chairman Nikolay Kravchuk, ex-Minister of construction Andrei Skomorokhov and former Minister of property relations Alexander Davidenko.
Anti-corruption trend is perceived as independent and not necessarily correlated with the efficiency of the Governor in terms of economy or politics, says the head of Fund “the Petersburg policy” Michael Vinogradov.
Kadyrov and the mayor strengthened the position
Among the stable “excellent” — the head of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov, the region, experts have called one of the “exemplary from the perspective of both the economy and the political handling”.
Strengthened its position and the leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, instead of four last year he got five. Impact that Kadyrov, according to the study, “managed to keep the direct election of the head and to prevent budget cuts”.
With a 4 – to 5 – increased the rating of survival rate of the Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin. Despite the fact that the rating of his colleagues of St. Petersburg Georgy Poltavchenko “slipped” on three (was 4). “The negative background is created by scandals surrounding the preparations for the world Cup, attracting the attention of law enforcement bodies”, — explained the experts of the low rating Poltavchenko. Another reason is the approaching end of term, your post he has held since 2011.
But the Governor of Leningrad region Alexander Drozdenko was among the few “standouts”. “The region remains very attractive for potential interested parties, including in the context of solving the question of power in St. Petersburg”, — stated in the study.
I have put five experts of Fund “the Petersburg policy” the new head of the Tula region Alexey Dyumin, against the background of a bygone Gruzdev while it is associated with certain “expectations”. Received the five and the head of Sevastopol Dmitry Ovsyannikov. The head of the Crimea Sergey Aksenov job, according to the authors of the rating, 4. As threats to the latter experts call “risk of nominating state Duma deputies from the Crimea as alternatives”.
In this part of the “honors” last year, the governors of the Belgorod and Voronezh regions Yevgeny Savchenko and Alexey Gordeev, the ranks of the “standouts” left. Elections to the state Duma in these regions occurred conflict, which started after the election campaign the struggle for the abolition of direct elections of the mayor of Voronezh has updated the intra-elite contradictions worsened and the media landscape, experts write about Gordeyev.
The drafters of the rating are not inclined to overestimate the influence of elections on the survival rating of regional leaders. Because the Federal government is trying to build a new agenda for the next presidential campaign (which directly depends on personnel policies), the election results were not a guarantee of preservation in the post, the report said.
Preparation for presidential campaign
Governors-“the losers” has become larger and the amount outstanding is not increased, acknowledged in an interview with the political scientist, co-author of the report Evgenie Minchenko.
“Elite space is included in the situation of turbulence before the presidential elections of 2018. There are groups and governors who are increasing their impact: it is Sobyanin, President Kadyrov. And several governors, who are now the flagships of the growing influence of elite groups: Drozdenko (Leningrad oblast) is Kovalchuk, Ovsyannikov (Moscow) is the Governor Chemezov, Dyumin (Tula oblast) is a personal contact with Vladimir Putin”, — said Minchenko.
At risk against this background, begin to get appointees of political parties — reduced estimates of Patomskogo Communist and liberal-Democrat Ostrovsky. “It seems that the model for the nomination of governors, nominated by political parties has exhausted itself,” — said Minchenko.
According to the analyst Vinogradova, among the main outsiders of the rating — those who did not go at the time for early elections after the return of gubernatorial elections in 2012. “These five to seven people, the loss of their rating stems from the fact that the authorities have the doubts, to support them or not. Ahead of the presidential election in 2018, there are aspirations of the new leadership of the presidential administration in the direction of liberal-minded citizens and to replace outright allergens” he said.
Among the candidates “out”, if we take into account the ideological orientation of the new curator of internal policy Sergey Kirienko, — Turchak and Merkushin, he said.