The ruble value of the sale of the state shareholding in Rosneft to a consortium of Qatar and Glencore fell for the week by 30 billion rubles due to the strengthening of the Russian currency to the Euro. The foreign exchange loss may be incurred by the seller’s share of Rosneftegaz, if it is not hedged change in the exchange rate, said the analysts of investment banks.
Rosneftegaz signed a deal with Anglo-Swiss trader Glencore and the Qatari sovereign wealth Fund QIA on December 7, according to “Rosneft” (QIA Glencore and date the agreement did not call). The cost of 19.5% of Rosneft shares was set in euros, followed from the press release Glencore, to €10.2 billion based on the share price on the Moscow stock exchange at the end of trading on December 6 with a 5-percent discount (692 billion). And the government on 7 December adopted a resolution which “Rosneftegaz” is obliged to transfer to the budget 692,4 billion rubles from the transaction, plus the interim dividend in the amount of 18,4 bln (total 710,8 bn).
But the ruble from 6 to 14 December strengthened against the Euro by 6% (data from Bloomberg terminal), and the cost of the transaction with Glencore and QIA in rubles shrank to 662,8 billion rubles, almost 30 billion rubles (at the exchange rate of the Central Bank on 14 December). The ruble rose after rising oil prices after OPEC agreement on production cuts, which, on 10 December, joined by oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia.
Money in the Euro must do “Rosneftegaz” until 15 December, to reports of Rosneft and the Federal property Agency. But the scheme of transfer of the money in rubles for the budget has not yet been determined — the government only promised not to allow sharp fluctuations in the currency market. “Look, the financial market now will go a significant amount of foreign currency, and money must be received in the budget in rubles in rubles, so you need to devise a scheme that would not have negatively affected the market, would not cause any jumps in the currency market”, — said the President of Russia Vladimir Putin the head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin at a meeting in the Kremlin on 7 December.
The Finance Ministry expects Rosneftegaz 692 billion roubles (not counting the co-pay intermediate dividends), and that means someone has to cover the shortfall, resulting from exchange rate differences, says analyst, “Renaissance Capital” Ildar Davletshin. Theoretically, the agreement with a consortium of buyers could be prescribed a clause stating that the consortium is obliged to cover this difference at the close of the transaction, but it is unlikely that buyers would take on the currency risk, he says. Most likely, this difference can be further covered with “Rosneftegaz” because it is a commitment to the budget, and previously, the company has agreed to pay to the Treasury 18 billion rubles of dividends, he suggests. Since the deal should provide Rosneftegaz, regardless of the chosen scheme, the losses from the depreciation of the Euro will fall on him, agrees the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai.
Thus “Rosneftegaz” could hedge the risk of cheapening transactions in rubles through a derivative instrument type forward, says Davletshin. It is easiest and safer to do it through a forward contract, agrees economist at Danske Bank Vladimir miklashevskii, as forward allows you to fix the exchange rate and not to pay the premium. Another option — buy option-put option on the Euro-ruble, and a premium to the seller to offset through the sale of the call option, specifies miklashevskii. “Rosneft” reported about the deal on 10 December did not mention any risks relating to changes in exchange rates or hedging instruments.
The press service of Glencore and representatives of the QIA did not respond to a request , as the press service of “Rosneft”. On the question of whether the budget to a lesser amount from the sale of a package “Rosneft” from-for exchange rate differences, the representative of the Ministry of Finance said: “can Not. The budget will be USD 703,5 mlrd”. The press service of the Federal property management Agency at the time of publication of this article did not answer.
Federal budget for 2016 is provided proceeds from the sale of shares of “Rosneft” in the amount of 703,5 billion rubles, but the budget will receive from Rosneftegaz 7.3 billion more due to additional dividends of the holding company, reported earlier the Federal property management Agency.
with the participation of Marina Bozhko, Anna Mogilev