For the first time Russia has overtaken China in the ranking of developing economies


Russia has overtaken China in the ranking of emerging markets, prepared by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. She took the second place, he lost in 2014, after the collapse of oil prices. Russia left the second economy in the world behind in the rankings for the first time since 2009 (year of the beginning of the output rankings). Top ten countries led by South Korea.

Russia has weak economic growth, but “some of the strongest indicators of the” current account, fiscal policy, and the level of use of borrowed funds. In addition, she has managed to significantly reduce inflation, the survey says BofAML strategist David Hauner (have).

From the point of view of the fundamentals of the emerging markets, China is losing its position. South Africa and Turkey has already reached the bottom. South Africa has retained its place at the end of the list because of “stagflation, double deficit (current account deficit and budget deficit. — ) and high indebtedness across all sectors”. Turkey took the last place because of the vulnerability to external factors. “China remains in the top five for GDP growth, but lost its position from the point of view of indicators of non-state and public debt, current account and the adequacy of reserves,” said Hauner. “Korea has maintained its leadership due to the strong indicators of current account and fiscal policy. While the country has one of the highest among emerging markets debt load — which partly indicates strong financial development of Korea.

Top 10 emerging markets

1. South Korea

2. Russia

3. China

4. India

5. Indonesia

6. Poland

7. Mexico

8. Brazil

9. Turkey

10. South Africa

Most commodity exporters have substantially improved their foreign trade balances due to adjustments of fiscal policy and the exchange rate. In particular, significantly increase the basic balance (current account plus foreign direct investment) for the 12-month trailing period was Russia, Kazakhstan, Argentina, Brazil and Nigeria.

Of oil exporters that had previously been in leading positions in the top BofAML developing and border (frontier) markets (covering 56 countries), to stay on top was only Russia and Kuwait. These are two countries that have always budgeted the price of oil far below market prices, according to a survey. In the consolidated rating of developing and frontier markets in a dozen developing countries the range is from 6-th to 15-th place. First place a big top-56 ranked Bulgaria. Followed by the Philippines, Taiwan, Israel and Kuwait. Under the “frontier markets” BofAML understand countries with markets that are smaller and less liquid than the more advanced emerging markets.

When preparing the ranking BofAML assigns countries and 70 points in areas such as Economics and Finance. In their work, experts estimate that about 4 thousand of indicators, including economic growth, inflation, and vulnerabilities in the fiscal, foreign trade and banking sectors.

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