become known three scenarios for the financial recovery of Tatfondbank. Rescue using funds of the Central Bank and its main shareholder — the government of the Republic of Tatarstan is just one of the options. The other two sanitation with the participation of AK BARS Bank or reorganization involving a third party related to the authorities of Tatarstan, but does not belong neither to the shareholders nor to financial institutions. Wednesday, December 14, the government of Tatarstan should submit their detailed proposals for the restructuring of the Bank to the Central Bank.
The first option requires that the Central Bank will allocate a loan of 75% of the total amount of financial assistance required Tatfondbank. And the remaining part of the funds will give the Bank’s main shareholder — the government of the Republic of Tatarstan, said two sources. Now through direct and indirect participation of the Republic owns 45% of shares of Tatfondbank. According to one of the interlocutors , we are talking about the sum of nearly 80 billion recapitalization (including “holes” in the two rehabilitated Tatfondbank credit institutions — timer-Bank and Bank “Soviet”) and bridge the gap in liquidity that occurred in December as a result of the outflow of funds for another 7-8 billion rubles.
However, this option does not suit the government, which expects to retain control in the Bank, said the interlocutor of the edition. In addition, the Republic is still in no mood to invest additional funding in Tatfondbank, according to the interlocutors of the publication.
According to the second embodiment; Tatfondbank has to be the largest credit institution in the region and one of the top 20 Russian banks by assets Bank AK BARS. But in this case, you may have a legal discrepancy, the source says. According to the law on bankruptcy provides for reorganization change of ownership of the debtor company. In fact, such owners must become shareholders of AK BARS Bank. However, the Republic of Tatarstan, AK bars is owned by more than 54.8 per cent. It turns out that, formally, the change will not happen. Although in this embodiment, a lot depends on how technically prepared to treat this TSB. In addition, the relationship between banks are not the best. According to information from AK Bars, like other market participants the interbank market is closed related Tatfondbank.
The third option suggests that the turnaround of Tatfondbank may be the company, indirectly associated with the relevant owners, but not included in the number of active shareholders and non-Bank. The latter avoids the risk of additional burden on the standards of the nursing home.
A possible change of ownership at the point Tatfondbank and analysts of the rating Agency Standard & Poor’s, which on 13 December downgraded the long-term and short-term credit ratings of the Bank from/to CCC-/C. “In our opinion, the adoption of the financial recovery plan, the Bank ownership structure may change, accordingly, the majority shareholder may no longer be the majority,” explained the leading credit analyst of S&P Sergey Voronenko.
The authorities of Tatarstan, meanwhile, made the first statement after the sharp deterioration of the situation in Tatfondbank. As stated by the head of the Republic Rustam Minnikhanov, Tatarstan’s government will support Tatfondbank “as its possibilities.” However, yesterday he said it was impossible to implement the scenario with AK Bars. Thus, the shareholders of the Bank do not add stability to a difficult situation.
Meanwhile, she continues to evolve rapidly. 13 December the Bank failed to honor the offer on the stock exchange bonds issue BO-14 and has made a technical default. The size of outstanding liabilities of nearly 1.9 billion rubles, the yield of this release, which is included in the Lombard list of the Central Bank, is 70% of the nominal value. Meanwhile, the Bank is an active participant in the debt market. All in all, he has the issuance of ruble-denominated debt securities in the amount of about 12 billion and three issues of Eurobonds in the amount of $190 million.
The Bank, previously restricting the payment of contributions and shortened working hours of their offices, announced that by the end of this week “suspends settlement and cash servicing of clients for the development and implementation of measures to restore liquidity”.
Interviewed analysts find it difficult to assess which of the support options Tatfondbank can be selected. “The regulator such decisions are always taken in manual mode. In this year of uncertainty was added that changed the decision makers (the Central Bank recently lost their jobs oversaw the supervision and reorganization first Deputy Chairman Alexei Simanovsky and Deputy Chairman Mikhail Sukhov. — ) and, in summer, the Central Bank started to change the rules of the rehabilitation,” — says chief economist “PF Capital” Evgenie Nadorshin.
“Sure, which option is currently selected, it is impossible. We can assume that Tatarstan wants the bulk of the support came from the Central Bank, and control over the Bank remained de facto outside the region or related structure. But the Central Bank that may not hold. I think the negotiations will go around these two points and will be difficult,” — adds the Director of financial institutions ratings Agency Fitch Alexander Danilov.
However, experts note that the least probable in the current heightened situation, the possibility of merging with AK Bars. “It would require the government of the Republic has large resources. In addition, you need time to prepare such a deal,” the source added.
Considering all these factors, the parties do not rule out that the stabilization of the background until a decision is made, the Bank may be introduced by the interim administration — and at the end of this week. However, the sources do not rule out that, given the hard line position of the main shareholder, if the situation in the Bank will continue to deteriorate, can be applied an extreme measure — revocation of license.