What are the chances of the electoral College not to give the Trump to be President

Monday, December 19, the United States began the second and final round of presidential elections — the vote of the electoral College. Moscow time the voting started on Monday evening.

According to the American tradition voting of the electors is held on the first Monday after the second Wednesday of December in an election year — about a month after the popular vote. Despite the name “College” electors are not going all together: voting takes place in state capitals. The plan to January 6, the votes of electors will be in the U.S. Congress, which will count the vote and will endorse the result.

In the voting will involve 538 electors, which corresponds to the number of members of Congress: 100 senators, 435 members of the house of representatives and three delegates from the district of Columbia capital. According to the procedure, each of the parties forms in each of the States electoral College — the number of representatives in Congress. But the vote will be only the electors from the party that won in direct elections in this state. The electors would vote separately for trump and his Vice President Mike Pence.

The formation procedure of the boards varies from state to state. In some regions the electors are defined on the inner primaries, others are appointed by party leadership, in the third — are determined by election headquarters of candidates. As the magazine Politico, these differences can lead to the fact that in some States the composition of the electoral College may enter person in the inner circle of one of the presidential candidates or the national well-known politicians. For example, from the Democratic party in the state of new York (where he beat Hillary Clinton) one of the electors acts bill Clinton, former U.S. President and husband of Hillary.

Legally the duty of the elector to vote for the winner from the state is not spelled out, but in some States for failure to vote is punishable by a fine or appointment an elector of another person.

Loyalty against the position

The loyalty of their electors to the candidate has become a hot topic after the elections. Many Americans were disappointed by the victory of the trump organized a movement in support of the petition calling on the electors to vote for Hillary Clinton. By 19 December, the petition has collected more than 4.9 million signatures.

Given that the United States, a victory which was won by trump, giving him 306 electoral votes when needed to win 270, opponents of the elected President needs to convince at least 37 electors from the Republican party to withdraw its support for the candidate of their party. Publicly of the intention not to vote for trump said so far only one elector-Republican — Texas resident Christopher Suprun. Trump “every day, demonstrates the unwillingness of the presidential work,” Suprun told The New York Times.

The number of undecided electors can reach 30 people, told the British The Independent, Larry Lessig, Professor at Harvard University. He advised the electors on the question whether they have the right to vote not, the vote by the voters in the state.

In the history of the United States as a “dishonest electors” (who refused to vote for the entitlement of the candidate) issued at 157. Almost half of these cases (63 recused himself) came in 1872, when the Democratic candidate Horace Greeley died in late November after the national elections, but before the vote of the electors. According to The Independent, never in the history of “unscrupulous electors” were unable to change the initial voting results.

If the results of counting of votes at a joint session of Congress, none of the candidates do not collect the necessary 270 votes (for example, some electors will enter the ballots the names of other politicians), the acting President will be elected Vice-President Mike Pence. If you find that during the voting electors have not supported the candidacy of Penny, to perform the duties of the President will be the speaker of the house of representatives. This office is held by Republican Paul Ryan.

Questions to the electoral system

Along with a call to voters not to support trump the outcome of the vote provoked a debate about the rejection of a two-stage voting system. The fact that in direct elections, Clinton bypassed trump more than 2.5 million votes, receiving the support of 48.1 percent of Republicans and 46% at the trump. Elected President himself in 2012 called the electoral College a disaster, but in November of this year, the revised position and called it “brilliant”.

Discussion about changing the electoral system occurs every time the violent clashes of the two parties — Republican and Democratic, however, in order to change the system, you need to change the Constitution, this amendment should support the legislative assemblies of all States, and this is time-consuming, lengthy process, so we can expect continued discussion, but no changes, explained americanist, Professor of Moscow state University Yuri Rogulev.