The challenge for the regions
Saturday, December 24, Sberbank Corporate University completed a training workshop for Vice governors on domestic policy, which lasted from 21 to 24 December.
On the last day of the seminar, the first Deputy head of the presidential administration Sergei Kiriyenko spoke including on presidential elections, told the participants of the event. According to one of the Vice-governors, Kiriyenko said that the main candidate “should win with a very high turnout — 70%” and with a score of 70%. In this case, for it should vote not less than half of voters came to the polls. What Kiriyenko is really called these figures have been confirmed by two members of the seminar.
“Elections, in fact, should become a referendum on confidence. It was clearly stated that they will be held in March 2018,” adds one of the interlocutors .
Another Vice-Governor claims that the participants discussed how to provide a 70% result, the main candidate at the same high turnout during the execution of one of the training objectives that were set at the seminar of the political block of the Kremlin. But it was not the setting for action from the presidential administration, namely, a training exercise with the highest performance, said the source.
The representative of Department of internal policy of the Kremlin said that the past event with the participation of Vice-governors in charge of regional political blocks, “it’s a seminar, not a meeting.” During the workshop, according to him, worked out different learning tasks, have been tested, formed action plans, “But to perceive these learning objectives as the official setup makes no sense,” said the source. Two other interlocutor who participated in the workshop, on the contrary, believe that delivered at the seminar turnout figures and the result is a real task that is placed by the Kremlin.
So far the turnout for the presidential elections in Russia never reached the figure of 70%, though, and approached her. In 2012 it amounted to 65.3%, in 2008 — more than 69% in 2004 to 64.4% in 2000 to 68.7%. In the 1996 presidential elections, which were held in two rounds, the turnout in the first round was equal to 69.8% and in the second — 69,4%.
As for the election result, 70% of the “candidates of the Kremlin” received twice. In 2004 Vladimir Putin won with a total of 71.3 per cent in 2008, Dmitry Medvedev won the election, receiving 70.3% of the vote.
At the annual press conference for journalists on Friday, December 23, Putin has not responded directly to the question whether he would participate in the elections: “the Time is ripe, I will look at what is happening in the country, in the world, and, based on what we’ve done, based on what we can do as we must do, a decision will be made about my participation or non-participation in future elections of the President of the Russian Federation”, — he said. Answering the question about the possibility of early presidential elections, Putin said that it is possible, but impractical.
The presidential campaign will begin in the spring
Sergei Kiriyenko at the seminar called on the Vice-governors not to count on the fact that certain “unpopular measures will have to be filled with money”: “He said that the economy is stagnating, and even if tomorrow the oil will cost $100 per barrel, should rely only on the money that is budgeted,” continued one of the sources .
To boost turnout in the presidential elections, the authorities have “interest” of citizens, but this should be done within the law, without the use of illicit technology transfer words of the curator of the political block the sides . According to them, Kiriyenko said that the Kremlin “will be in the campaign (meaning unofficial beginning of it. — ) in the spring, but to prepare for it it is necessary already today”.
The stiffness formulation for the turnout and the result — if these units really were — suggests that to advance is that Putin, and not someone else, said political analyst Konstantin Kalachev. Score 70% the President, he said, can get “nothing doing”, but there is a problem with turnout.
“It is clear that a key objective of the election is the legitimacy of their outcome. Elections must demonstrate broad public support of the President, to not only confirm but also strengthen its position”, — says the expert. But the Kremlin is between Scylla and Charybdis: if nothing changes the election — and yet, according to Kalachev, we can assume that it will be exactly that — a high turnout can only be achieved through the administrative resource, which reduces the value of the result. So the question is, as the moderators of the political process and want a high turnout to, and not to abuse administrative resources.
Not ruled out such an option: regions is Planck’s turnout above the optimal in order to obtain at the output acceptable to the Kremlin performance, believes Kalachev. Such a measure, in his opinion, could be the figure of 60%.
Political analyst Dmitry Orlov agree that 70% for Putin, if he will participate in the elections, to absolutely real. As for appearance, then, according to the expert, is unlikely to now ask some tough bars. “Turnout 70% means ensuring ultra-high interest in the elections, much higher than we see today. You will need a variety of techniques to achieve this level of appearance”, — says the expert, believing that now this kind of numbers sound “mode estimates, probing the soil”, but nothing more.
Federal and regional challenges
The current leadership of the political block of the Kremlin refused when conducting a seminar for Vice-governors from the classical format of lectures, which were practiced under the former first Deputy head of the presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin, focusing on the practice of “brainstorming” and group discussion of different topics. If before the workshops the participants, whether Vice-governors, or governors, was sitting in the hall all together, this time they were seated in groups at separate tables: “we’ve been transplanted, changed the composition. First we listened to a short lecture, and then each table had to decide and write in the computer what are the Federal and regional challenges” — gives the example of a new approach one of the sources .
After this, the ballot — and those named Vice-governors of challenges that gained the most votes took the list of real challenges. Among these challenges, says the participant of the seminar included, for example, the conflict of elites, uneven development of the regions, the ineffectiveness of the relations between the center and regions.
Another source said that Vice-governors asked Kiriyenko to stop “gouge” the heads of regions of different efficiency ratings, or at least to organize them: “When you suddenly lower with high position [in the ranking], you don’t know what to think,” says the source . Kiriyenko to this request did not answer, he says.
Ratings of governors makes a few expert centers. The Kremlin’s position in relation to the heads of subjects were considered to be expressed in a rating of efficiency of governors of the Foundation for civil society development Konstantin Kostin.
During the seminar, said another Vice-Governor, Kirienko promised that the curators of the regional Department of internal policy will be more likely to go to the territories as “increased travel support”. The Vice Governor promised that the next workshop may be held in the summer, while in spring it is expected a similar event for governors.