Four versions: FSB has ruled out a terrorist attack as the cause of the disaster Tu-154

Four versions

Monday, December 26, the Federal security service (FSB) have listed the main versions of the crash flying in Syrian Latakia Tu-154. This is getting into the engine foreign objects, poor quality fuel, resulting in loss of power and failure of the engines and the piloting error and technical malfunction of the plane, said the Center of public relations (TSOs) FSB of the message, which is quoted by TASS.

All these versions are included in the list of the most common causes of air crashes, said the chief editor of “” the novel of hussars.

Which of the following versions of the most likely, in TSOs FSB has not specified. Sunday as a priority, the authorities appeared technical failure of the aircraft, reported “Interfax” citing a source in the emergency services. On Monday, “Interfax” with reference to familiar with the situation, the source reported that the cause of Tu-154 crash could become an overload and equipment failure.

What happened to the Tu-154

Owned by the defense Ministry airliner took off from the airfield near Moscow Chkalovsky at 1:38 am GMT on December 25. As reported by the duty airfield, before flying the aircraft passed pre-flight training and “until this summer”. In Adler Board was refueling and went to Syria.

The plane took off at 5:25, 5:27 radar is missing its mark, reported the official representative of the military Department Igor Konashenkov, quoted by the TV channel “Star”.

On Board were 92 people: eight crew members and 84 passengers, including 64 members of the Alexandrov ensemble. They flew to a military base Hamim to play there on new year’s concert.

On Board were a member of the presidential Council on human rights (HRC) Elizaveta Glinka, and also the Director of the Department of culture Ministry of defence Anton Gubankov and his assistant Oksana Batrutdinova, journalists, broadcasters, NTV (Michael Luzhetsky, Evgeny Tolstov Oleg Pestov), Zvezda (Pavel Obukhov, Alexander Surinov and Valery Rzhevskiy) and “the First channel” (Vadim Denisov, Alexander Saidov and Dmitry Rankov).

Military investigatory Department SK of the Russian Federation for the Sochi garrison upon crash a criminal case under article 351 of the criminal code of Russian Federation (“Infringement of rules of flights or preparation for them”). On behalf of the Chairman of the Investigative Committee of Russia Alexander Bastrykin, the investigation leads the Central office of the TFR.

On the morning of 26 December, the defense Ministry said that the discovered 11 bodies of the dead and 154 fragment of the plane. The bodies of ten killed and 86 fragments of bodies flown to Moscow on Monday morning. As reported TASS with reference to the press service of the defense Ministry, two pieces of control system design raised from the bottom, by the serial number set they belong to Tu-154; other items are at the bottom at a depth of about 30 m at a distance of 1.6 km from the shore; the radius of the spread of the wreckage was about 500 m.

The Ministry also reported that surveyed 100% of surface of surface of the area of the crash and a significant part of the bottom (7 of the 15 sectors). In the search operation involved more than 3.5 thousand people, 45 ships, 12 aircraft, ten helicopters and three drones.

TASS reported that to the place of tragedy delivered submersibles of the Russian geographical society. The operations involved the emergencies Ministry, defense Ministry, border service of the FSB, Rosmorrechflot, etc. Department.

The first assumption

The day of the tragedy, the authorities did not exclude the version of act of terrorism. It among other called Minister of transport Maxim Sokolov, who headed the government Commission to investigate the causes of the disaster. The attack as a possible cause of the tragedy was considered by the FSB. This is the standard rule for such cases, said a source in the service. About the incident, which led to the loss of control and destruction of the aircraft in the air, talked and interviewed experts.

The plane could shoot down a missile from a portable air defense missile system or on-Board explosive device, said the interlocutors . The bomb, in their opinion, could transfer the passengers of the Tu-154 as a package to the crew while refueling at the airport of Sochi. Or she could be on Board during preparation for the departure at the airport Chkalovsky, made by the experts.

At aerodromes as Chkalovsky, where, along with aircraft by civil airlines are passenger planes of the defense Ministry, the emergencies Ministry and intelligence services, special procedure for crossing of passengers on Board, said the Chairman of the public Council under the inter-regional investigatory management on transport of Investigatory Committee of Russia Sergey Gruzdev. On the service side passengers could just check the name list on the landing, he said.

Check Luggage which is carried by a military Board, remains on the conscience of the crews of aircraft, said a former air force pilot Vitaly Sokolovsky. One of the military journalists, said that in his practice there were cases when during the flight Chkalovsky military sides personal search was conducted.

The final conclusion

Monday in TSOs FSB have informed that have not been identified signs and evidence pointing to the possibility of a terrorist attack or sabotage on Board the Tu-154.

Before departure the aircraft was under guard, said the center. In Sochi, the plane arrived at 3:43 MSK to refuel, which was originally planned in Mozdok, but was postponed due to weather conditions. In Sochi airport the plane was taken under protection by employees of the border service of the FSB and servicemen of the defense Ministry. During refueling on Board up to only two people — the border guard and the customs officer. From the aircraft to monitor the refueling went crew commander and flight engineer.

On Board besides the passengers and their Luggage were 150 kg of cargo — food and medicines. Of goods for military and dual-use fireworks on Board, said the DSP FSB.

Foreign objects

The ingress of birds or other objects into the engine — a common cause of air incidents. During the flight the turbine can get, for example, a weather probe, said airman 1st class Andrey Litvinov. During the takeoff run, the aircraft can move in and toss the foreign object, which then has a chance to get into the engine, said the honored pilot of the USSR Yuri Abramovich.

However, the foreign objects or birds in the engine of Tu-154 — it is unlikely the cause of the disaster, says Gusarov. The three liner engine, like an expert, and the crash happened when the aircraft has gained sufficient altitude. “Getting the bird was not to cause an emergency situation, because there are still two engine. Catastrophe could only happen if the plane ran into a flock and the birds got all the engines,” says Aviaexport.

In Russia recorded a few dozen cases of hit of birds in aircraft engines every year, reminds Gusarov. “The penetration of birds into the engine rarely leads to disaster. The most dangerous of such cases during takeoff, when the engine is operating in the limiting mode. Then in case of failure of the other remaining engine may not be enough,” says Gusarov.

But just to exclude the ingress of birds into the engine crashed in the Black sea Tu-154 can not be sure the designer Vadim Lukashevich, a former employee of the Sukhoi OKB. If this happens, the expert explained, the traces from falling in the engine birds will remain on the blade of the turbine, and the recorder will record a drop in engine thrust.

Pilot error

Tu-154 operated by an experienced pilot — airman first class Roman Volkov, reported on Sunday, a representative of the Ministry of defense of Russia Igor Konashenkov. The wolves flew about 3.5 thousand hours, had the experience of flying in hot spots. Gusarov and Lukashevich called pilots with such experience “skilled enough”.

The crew also consisted of the Navigator Alexander Petukhov, who in 2011 was on Board the “dancing” of the Tu-154 (flight after takeoff from the Chkalovsky airfield careened on one wing, then another due to problems with the control system, but eventually was able to land safely).

According to Gusarov, while there is no information that point to pilot error.

Earlier media reported that the plane crashed into the turn over the Black sea. Lukashevich suggested that it could be a sharp maneuver towards the airport of departure and the pilots attempt to return to runway. But then it is unclear why dispatch did not request an emergency landing, said the expert. “Until you have found and decoded the flight data recorders, no version can not be considered a primary,” concludes Gusarov.

Not the kerosene

Because of the poor quality of fuel the engines of the Tu-154 could lose power. A similar version appeared in the investigation of the crash of Yak-42 at the airport of Yaroslavl in September 2011, which killed hockey team Lokomotiv Yaroslavl. It has not been confirmed.

Loss of power can occur when refueling in winter, “summer” fuel said a source in the aircraft industry. The expert noted that filling the “summer” of kerosene in the case of the Tu-154 could not lead to failure of all engines, as it was not too cold. Even if the engines and refused, said the source, disabling other systems would not have happened at lightning speed. “For the production of electricity on Board the aircraft meets the auxiliary power unit also run on kerosene. Unlike engines it is not picky about fuel. And in a critical situation it would be possible to transmit a signal about an emergency on Board,” said the source .

Untenable version of fuel considered, and honorary President of the International aviation and space salon (MAKS) test pilot Magomed Tolboev. He noted that aviation fuel goes through several checks: when entering the vault during overload in the tanker or directly at the gas station. In the latter involved members of the crew, namely the flight engineer, said the expert.

The problem with the wing

The last plane crash, the cause of which was officially named technical failure of the aircraft is the crash of a civilian An-140 in Iran August 10, 2014. As reported by TASS, denied electronic engine management.

Interviewed experts in the version about technical malfunction of the Tu-154 do not believe. A source in the aviation industry said that its design over the decades of its operation are studied so well that miss any malfunction is almost impossible.

On the Tu-154 mechanical control system for hydraulic actuators. According to tolboyev, a complete failure of this system is possible only if it takes the rest of the liquid. “To refuse this system can only work if the tank with hydraulic fluid, which is located in the center section, to get a shell. But even with a leaking tank can continue the flight,” — said the expert.

However, he made a crash due to fatigue failure in the mechanization of the wing. “When cleaning mechanisms of the flaps on the wings could not work simultaneously — one section removed completely, and the other is not. The plane started to spin and collapsed”, — said Tolboev.

However, none of the experts interviewed could not identify any official version as a major. The final conclusions can be done after examining the wreckage and decoding of flight recorders.

With the participation of Philip Alekseenko