Tuesday, December 27, in Moscow, in the Ministry of foreign Affairs, held consultations on Afghanistan, which was attended by diplomats from Russia, Pakistan and China, said at a briefing the official representative the Ministry of foreign Affairs Maria Zakharova. According to her, participants noted deterioration of the situation in the country, expressed concern about the increase in terrorist activity, especially the ongoing Afghan wing of the ISIL (terrorist group forbidden in Russia). Earlier Tuesday, the representative the Ministry of foreign Affairs of Afghanistan Ahmad Shakib Mustaghni told the AP that his government was not invited to the meeting, Such an approach, he said, is not conducive to advancement in the country. The parties welcomed the participation of Afghanistan in these discussions, said Zakharov.
The threat at the borders of the Central Asian countries
On the security situation and threats for the countries of Central Asia and Russia, said the presidents of the CSTO on Monday, December 26, at the summit in St. Petersburg. In ODKB (the Organization of collective security Treaty) which includes Armenia, Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. “Particularly discussed in detail the worsening situation in Afghanistan, the deteriorating situation on the Tajik-Afghan border and the measures that should be taken to assist Tajikistan in stabilizing the situation on the border”, — told journalists on Monday the Secretary General of the CSTO Nikolay Bordyuzha.
The situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating, noted experts at the conference in MGIMO, and the participants of the presentation of the report on the situation in the country of the international discussion club “Valdai”, held in late December in Moscow. The report of the “Valdai” provided that if before the basic number of attacks by the Taliban and other extremist groups had on the border areas of Afghanistan and Pakistan, in the last two years, a growing number of incidents on the border with the countries of Central Asia. Since 2009, the number of civilian casualties in conflicts of the Afghan army and anti-government armed groups on the border with Pakistan have grown by 35%, and on the borders with the Central Asia — by 530%. In 2009, losses in the regions adjacent to Central Asia, was five times less than in the areas adjacent to Pakistan in 2015 — only in 1.3 times. Increasing the number of settlements captured by anti-government forces. At the end of last year was captured 24 of the district center, 15 of which are on the borders with the countries of Central Asia, 11 — on the border with Tajikistan.
Is growing and the total number of militants fighting in the provinces adjacent to Central Asia (Badakhshan, Kunduz and takhor), says the report of the “Valdai”. This is due to the migration of insurgents from those areas where the Afghan army has intensified its actions, explain the authors of the report.
In Badakhshan two County — Wardog and Uman — almost completely under the control of anti-government forces. A strong presence there, “Haqqani Network” and Islamic party of Afghanistan of Hekmatyar, but the leading role played by the Taliban, the report said. The militants have heavy weapons and military equipment. In Tahore well as strong positions in several counties. Under the control of the Taliban is a large part of Kunduz province, in 2016 the Afghan forces in full control only the center of Kunduz city.
In 2016, the deterioration of the situation developed by a number of factors, experts say. One of them is the worsening of the socio-economic situation in the countries of Central Asia and Russia. The fall in oil prices hit the economy of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were also affected, but indirectly: the migrants from these countries now earn in Russia is less and less is sent to the home — and therefore less resistant to recruitment, said Andrey Kazantsev, Director of analytical center at MGIMO. In Tajikistan, the recruiters mostly work with low-income segments of the population, while in Kazakhstan it entered into criminal circles and recruit in prisons, says Kazantsev. At the conference in MGIMO, conducted by the analytical Association of the CSTO, Bordyuzha has informed that only from Tajikistan in order to join ISIS has left 2,000 people, of whom 600 were killed.
In 2017, the situation in the country may worsen because of the lack of resources of government forces of Afghanistan, says the program Director of the “Valdai” by Andrey sushentsov. The Afghan army and law enforcement forces without the support of the United States or to successfully oppose, nor to regain control of lost territories, noted in the November review of Afghanistan Insitute for the study of war. Between the government and opposing forces to them is a struggle for control over territory and population, pointed out in September, the commander of US forces in Afghanistan John Nicholson. Then he reported that according to the US, the Afghan government controls 70% of the population, sosredotochenno mainly in the center of the country, and contradicting powers — about 10% in rural areas on the outskirts, however, a precise balance of forces there. “The parties fight for control over a quarter of the population,” he pointed out. In Afghanistan, according to the CIA, home to 33 million
Another factor is uncertainty in the international situation, says Kazantsev: unclear until the strategy elected President of the USA of Donald trump, affects the actions of other countries involved in the Afghan issue.
Despite the growing instability in Afghanistan, in 2017 direct threat to Central Asian countries and Russia, says Sushentsov. The authors of the “Valdai” indicate that a frontal attack by anti-government groups on the borders of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan are virtually eliminated — as long as the militants did not established full control over the adjoining provinces, but they cannot rule out limited attacks.
There remain other threats: drug — smuggling hard drugs across the borders of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, with a track-laying for drugs the battle and the danger of the return home of members of terrorist groups.