Former speaker of the U.S. Congress and ally of Donald trump, newt Gingrich said in a Fox News interview that the US President-elect after his inauguration to cancel about 70% of the Executive orders signed by Barack Obama.
By trump during the election campaign, gave a number of bold promises. In particular, he wants to withdraw the United States from trade agreements with Mexico and Canada (NAFTA) and to cancel the Agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP), to cancel a large-scale health care reform (Obamacare), out of the Paris climate agreement. In addition, he promised to take measures to end a series taken by the Obama laws aimed at regulating the activities of oil companies and coal-fired power plants.
understood how just elected President will fulfill the promises.
HOW TO CANCEL
Donald trump has three opportunities to fulfill their campaign promise to revoke Obama’s initiatives. So, it can enact or repeal of individual laws by his own decree or take the help of loyal of the Congress (majority in both houses to keep his party). In addition, the trump can affect the fate of the adopted laws and signed agreements through their people in key positions in the new administration.
- The first way: the decree of the President
The US President has the right to enact laws by his own decree. For example, Obama, for fear of blocking their initiatives in Congress, often resorted to the tool of Executive orders (in fact, the presidential decree). During the eight years of his reign, the 44th President has signed 249 such decrees (as of the end of December 2016). Introduced by presidential decree initiatives easy to withdraw the cancellation of the Executive orders of their predecessors is the issue of new directives and does not require the approval of Congress.
Obama is not a record for the management of the country through decrees. Two of his presidential term, George W. Bush signed a decree 291, bill Clinton issued 364 orders, Ronald Reagan — 381 this document, and Dwight D. Eisenhower — 486 orders.
In particular, the Directive introduced Obama’s funding of abortions from the Federal budget, which trump promised to cancel after coming to the White house, as well as sanctions against Russia over the Crimea.
Read more about sanctions and the possibility of cancellation, read the material.
- The second way: via a loyal Congress
Laws passed by Congress to revoke its own decree of the President of the United States can. However, the Republicans retained a majority in both houses of Congress after the elections, and was thus to make the necessary changes in US law. After the elections in the Senate the Republicans have 52 votes out of 100, and in the house of representatives — 241 out of 435 seats.
Majority rule for budget issues
Theoretically, the opposition party can delay the process of approval of amendments of the legislation indefinitely. Debate in the Senate can be stopped, if you get 60 senators willing to support the amendments (rule “superblast”). The Republicans in the Senate only 52 votes.
However, if changes to legislation are carried out within the framework of budget negotiations, Republicans for cloture will be enough simple majority of 51 votes. Under this category fall and plans of trump, concerning the abolition of the provisions of Obamacare.
- The third way: appointments to key posts
Donald trump will be able to influence the fate of legislative initiatives of Obama, appointing to key positions in government agencies and in the judicial system of people who share his political views.
The vacant seat on the Supreme court
In the US empty one of the nine seats of the Supreme court, vacated after the death of Antonin Scalia, known for his conservative views. New chief judge appointed by the President “on the advice and with the consent of the Senate.”
The Republican Senate rejected Obama’s proposals to replace this position. After his inauguration trump will be able to offer my candidature for the post of the Supreme judge. He has promised that he will offer for the post of the person who will maintain “a similar judicial philosophy.”
WHAT TO CANCEL
- Health care reform Obama
During the election campaign, trump has promised to cancel a large-scale health care reform, known as Obamacare. Without the approval of both houses of Congress to revoke the reform impossible. However, the elected President of the USA, there are two possibilities.
First, the President can indirectly influence the behavior of Congress. According to Michael cannon, a leading specialist at the Cato Institute on health, if trump wants to seriously damage Obamacare, it will be enough to cancel his decree subsidizing the costs of the insurance companies, through which insurers sell insurance plans with great discounts. This would be enough to “wreak havoc” and force Congress to go on reforms, says cannon.
Second, the Republican party will be able to conduct a partial repeal of Obamacare — the part that deals with the budget spending on health, and for cancellation which will be enough simple majority of 51 votes. First of all, it concerns stop Federal subsidization of health care for low-income Americans, as well as laws that require small companies to provide their employees with health insurance, and every American, who for whatever reason has no working health insurance — buy health insurance themselves or pay a fine. A similar plan has already been approved by the U.S. Congress in January 2016, but Obama has prevented the entry into force, using the veto.
Are not subject to cancellation
Other provisions of the reform (in particular, allowing young Americans under 26 years old to be insured working parents or forbidding insurance companies to deny insurance to people with chronic diseases) revoked by a simple majority in the Senate.
The trump said that after a conversation with President Obama reversed its position against Obamacare, and no longer advocates its complete abolition. According to him, these two provisions on the distribution of insurance parents of children and the prohibition of insurers to deny their services because of the patient’s health status — he is willing to reconsider.
- Trade agreements TPP and NAFTA
Trade agreements that trump was criticized during his election campaign, the TPP agreement (Agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership) and NAFTA (the free trade Agreement between Canada, Mexico and the United States), critique of anti-globalization activists and conservatives for the fact that they removed many trade barriers, simplifying import. This leads to a growing trade deficit and the fall in local production. As previously mentioned, the output of these agreements have become the most protectionist step to protect American workers.
For the fulfillment of the promises for the repeal or revision of international trade agreements Trump will not require the right to cancel the decrees of the previous administration.
The agreement on the TRANS-Pacific partnership (TPP) has not yet passed the ratification in Congress. Before the presidential elections, Obama had hoped to convince the deputies of the Republicans to approve the agreement at the time of inauguration of the new President, but after winning trump the head of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell flatly rejected such plans. The study of trump, who promised to withdraw from the TPP, by definition, will not be so insistent on the issue of ratification
The free trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and USA (NAFTA), trump must be pernapasan. Otherwise, Washington intends to unilaterally withdraw from it.
Signing NAFTA or exit from the agreement
The correction is governed by NAFTA article 2202, and the output — article 2205. For re-approval the necessary agreement of all three parties, after which the updated agreement is in the process of re-approval. In the case of the US that vote in Congress. To exit from NAFTA enough in six months to submit a written notification about it to your partners.
As a party-signatory to the NAFTA text specify that the government (in this case, USA), the White house has the sole right to file such a notice. However, the U.S. Constitution States that “Congress belongs the power to regulate Commerce with foreign powers”. Therefore, the solution trump NAFTA can theoretically lead to litigation on the rights of the Executive, warns publishing McClatchy.
- The cancellation of Obama’s measures to combat global warming
An important step trump to cancel the legacy of Obama could be a review of a number of measures taken by Obama in defense of the so-called “green energy”. We are talking about the package of measures developed by the Obama administration, called the Clean Power Plan, and exit from, the United States signed the Paris agreement on climate change.
Clean Power Plan was developed by the Obama administration to combat global warming and put into effect in 2015. It is focused on reducing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by 32% within 15 years.
One of the main measures to achieve this goal should be the regulation of emissions from coal-fired power plants, so the law caused great dissatisfaction among industry players USA for the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons.
To repeal the law Trump unless we have to. Just ten days after the law entered into force, twenty-eight States and more than 100 companies appealed to the court of appeals of the district of Columbia for an emergency stay of the law. And on February 9, 2016, the U.S. Supreme court issued a decision suspending the effect of the adopted law as long as the appellate court did not render a final decision in this case. As at December 2016 the case is still pending and, according to The New York Times, the lawsuit with the participation of States and companies will probably continue at least until 2017. Until then, following the recommendations of the Agency for environmental protection, responsible for the embodiment of the Clean Power Plan remains the responsibility of the States.
But even if the lawsuit will be a win for supporters of the Clean Power Plan, trump will be able to influence the fate of this law through the head of the Agency for environmental protection, the Federal Agency responsible for carrying out reforms for reducing emissions. This key position in the administration kvoa trump chose Scott Pruitt known as the enemy of reducing emissions of carbon to the atmosphere. Under the leadership of a fierce enemy Clean Power Plan, the law may never take effect.
Whether it is trump to take concrete steps to exit from the Paris agreement in 2015 on climate change, remains unclear. Earlier the politician claimed that the theory of global warming is false, and threatened to withdraw the U.S. from the agreement, but after the election of the President stated that “closely examines this issue and tries to be unbiased.”
In any case, in the near future to withdraw from the agreement States will not be able. According to the document, only three years after its entry into force, the country can apply for release, and then must pass for another year, before the decision to withdraw will come into effect. Given that the ratification of the agreement took place two months ago, out of it the United States is impossible until 4 November 2020. It will happen the day after the next election of the American President.