The latest assessment of the prospects of business development, made by the financial Directors of companies from different industries with different business scale, see the study (has) conducted by Deloitte in the second half of 2016. In the survey participated 60 financial Directors of companies in the financial, consumer and industrial sectors, real estate, high technology, energy and mining, telecommunications, entertainment industry and the media. 93% of respondents Russian companies rest 7% — foreign companies with localization of business in Russia. The study is conducted every six months over the past two years.
Business with the prospect
According to the study, in the second half of 2016, as well as in the first, dominated a negative assessment of the financial prospects of the business. “64% of respondents do not see positive changes, 36% optimistic about the situation”, — stated in the report on the results of the study. The authors of this ratio is called the “moderate optimism”. Compared to the previous half of the share of optimists rose by 10 percentage points to 36%, pessimists decreased by 17 percentage points to 13%, the proportion of those who saw no change in the situation, increased from 44 to 51%.
The second half was characterized by great optimism observed in strategic decision-making: the overall level of uncertainty has decreased since the first half of the year by 42 percentage points, from 44% to 2%. This figure demonstrates the difference in the estimates of the level of certainty on the part of pessimists and optimists. So, in the second half 49% of the respondents believed the low level of uncertainty, and 51% higher. Six months earlier, the ratio was 28% versus 72%, respectively.
At this low level of uncertainty is mainly noted in their moods financial Director of technology, media and telecoms (63%), high — financiers in the oil and gas industry (75% of respondents) and banking sector (62%).
Some improvement in the perception of financial Directors, which is indicated by Deloitte, due to the General economic trends, experts say. “In the spring the economic situation was much more complicated than it is now (the second half of the year was characterized, in particular, rising oil prices, reduction in volatility of the ruble, victory in the presidential election in the U.S. Republican Donald trump, competing for the strengthening of relations with Russia, and, accordingly, increase the attractiveness of Russian assets. — ) and in 2017 is expected to increase, says chief economist at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. — Obviously, the economy is in a positive territory. The third year of a recession unlikely.” A similar opinion was expressed by the chief economist of “Renaissance Capital” in Russia and the CIS Oleg Kuzmin. “In 2017 it is expected a gradual stabilization of the economy, including lower inflation and interest rates. The uncertainty of recent years has been prohibitive, is reduced,” he says.
Risks are not reduced
Up to the fourth of a series of studies remained the top 5 risk factors that dominated in the previous studies. The five most serious risk factors include (in order of importance) the crisis of the financial system, the decline in domestic demand, reduced cash flow, reduced income from operations and the weakening of the ruble. For the fourth consecutive time financial Directors agree that the crisis in the financial system carries the most serious risks for business.
However, although the crisis in the financial system still leads the ranking of risks, its risk to the business is gradually reduced. So, if the score assigned to this indicator in the autumn study a year ago was $ 2,49, this spring — 2,46, that at the moment financiers appreciated the crisis in the financial system already by 2.29 points. It is a summary evaluation of all financial Directors. In terms of sectoral distribution has worsened its assessment of the state of Affairs in the financial system banks and financial companies as well as companies in the energy and mining industries. The bankers put the sector worst grade for two years, during which conducted the study — 2.77 points. They started two years ago with 2.38 points.
The main drivers of business development Deloitte calls the policy of optimization of production costs, increase cash flow, and increased attention to maintaining operating activities. However, from the point of view of financial Directors number of factors hampering the resumption of business in 2016 still greatly exceeds the number of drivers that are mentioned in the study.
Banks and the crisis
Weakened financial system — a problem associated primarily with a reduction in the profitability of the business, but the financial sector in addition faces the risk of non-compliance with the rules of the Central Bank, said the head of research Deloitte center Laura Zemlyansky. “The concern among bankers is enhanced because of the protracted recovery processes on the market, especially compared to other markets. The Central Bank continues to deny banks licenses and strengthening oversight,” she says.
The interviewed participants of the banking market confirm that the problems that have accumulated in recent years and revealed now, and the response by the Central Bank reinforce fears in the industry. First of all we are talking about the low quality of assets and of “very low” confidence of depositors in the banking system, the Chairman of the Board SDM-Bank Maxim Solntsev. “As example, the situation with the Bank “Peresvet” and Tatfondbank. A bit of bad rumors and crowds of people take out money and stock liquidity of these banks is not enough,” he adds. Accumulated problems with asset quality in combination with low levels of trust, according to him, lead to the fact that credit organizations have to care not so much about profit, but about its own sustainability. “As a result, banks are forced to consider the risks of low confidence of investors in General, to keep more in liquid assets, less credit, and therefore earn less,” concludes the sun.
According to the Central Bank, in January—November banks earned 788 billion roubles — almost three times more than in 11 months of last year, though less than the Central Bank predicts year-end (1 trillion rubles). But, as announced in September the head of Sberbank German Gref, regardless of the performance of the forecast of the Central Bank, banks in 2016, will earn less than before the crisis. Member of the Board of Directors of the Bank Oleg Vyugin indicates the main factors that reduce the profitability of the banking business, insufficient demand and low quality borrowers. “Credit portfolios did not grow or grew slightly, depending on the segment of lending, as banks remain highly assess credit risk,” he says. In January—November 2016 the Russian banks, according to the Central Bank, lowered the corporate loan portfolio by 1.7%, while loans to individuals increased only by 1.2%. Interviewed bankers do not expect a noticeable growth of banks ‘ loan portfolios and in 2017.