Gref said the lack of expectations of “black swans” in 2017


The head of Sberbank German Gref not waiting for “black swans” (rare, unlikely event of a large scale) in 2017. Their expectations about the risks for the Russian economy in the coming year he shared in an interview with the newspaper “Vedomosti”.

“I do not expect black swans next year. The commodity prices even if you fall, then not much – they are so low. Aluminum prices have nowhere to fall. Coal may be cheaper, but it rose significantly this year, and he has to fall,” – said Gref.

He noted that the price of oil now hovering at around $52-53. And even if oil prices drop to $45 per barrel, shock, according to Gref, will not happen. “The budget prepared for this [it has the price $40], and companies and banks,” he added.

The head of Sberbank also expressed the hope that the geopolitical situation in the next year stabiliziruemost. “So after two very difficult years, we are in 2017 – the year of the centenary of the October revolution – with quite positive expectations,” he said.

Speaking about his expectations about the so-called “trump factor”, Gref said: “nobody knows trump-President. Many people know trump’s a businessman and trump’s a candidate, but not President. And I do not undertake to predict, but I have positive expectations.” The heads of Sberbank also said that he had intercourse with a trump, after which there was a “very positive experience”.

Asked to comment on the reform of supervision pursued by the Bank, Gref said, “to Assess the reform I can not, because not immersed in it deeply. I can say only one thing: what makes in recent years, the Chairman of the Central Bank, very painful, but absolutely right.”

Gref explained that already there have been many changes including enhanced requirements for banks, which “eats up a lot of capital” and leads to serious changes in the internal procedures. So, he said, from January 1, 2017 onwards, two more increases of capital requirements that “very painful, particularly in this difficult crisis moment.”

“A lot of banks grumble about. And I would have grumbled if I hadn’t worked on a large number of markets. We see how the regulators in Europe, Turkey, USA. After my language does not turn to say that our regulator excessively cruel. They do very professional my job” – summed Gref.

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