USA weakens sanctions against Russia in March-April of 2017, say analysts at Deutsche Bank. The likelihood of this scenario is 65%, according to a review of the Bank received by . The authors point to several signs emergency restrictions: positive feedback on Russia elected President of the USA of Donald trump and key members of his team, the potential willingness of trump and high-ranking Republicans to lift the sanctions in exchange for cooperation in the middle East and nuclear disarmament. Among the signs also referred to as lack of evidence of the intervention of Russian hackers, in the American political process and the existence of secret “special relationship” between the new American administration and Moscow.
Deutsche Bank analyzed the statements of trump, his assistant, Kellyann Conway, a future Secretary of state Rex Tillerson, the national security adviser Michael Flynn, the future head of the CIA Michael Pompeo and Minister of defense James Mattis. Tillerson, for example, during hearings on his appointment made cooperation with Russia in combating terrorism and stressed that Moscow is “not unpredictable” and could be a partner of Washington in the middle East.
In January, the trump has said he would maintain sanctions against Russia, imposed by President Barack Obama, “at least for some period of time.” A few days later he clarified that it would agree to the abolition of the restrictions, if he is able to negotiate with Moscow to reduce nuclear arsenals. The Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday that “did not see [trump] offer to disarm in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.”
Trump, asking to prepare a plan for dealing with hackers within 90 days after his election, outlined, which gives attention to the threat of cyber attacks, however, gave to understand that this threat comes not only from Russia. In his opinion, the attribution of this threat only Russia would be politically motivated, given that other countries and non-national forces are also accused of cyber attacks on American organizations, according to Deutsche Bank.
13 January the first Vice-Premier of the Russian government Igor Shuvalov did not rule out that after December 31, 2017 the government will not renew the food embargo imposed in response to Western sanctions. “I guess it’s time to understand that the sanctions will soon expire. Or contractee. Anyway, in my work, I and the Minister of agriculture and Minister of the economy, most likely, must proceed from the fact that counter-sanctions will be lifted”, he said. In a similar vein about the counter-sanctions in December, said Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — in his words, local businesses should be prepared for the fact that restrictions will be removed and there will be a “pure competitive field.”
Analysts Deutsche Bank notice that Trump has yet to find a compromise with the senators, who have drafted new sanctions against Russia. The developers of these measures, which include both Democrats and Republicans (including Senator John McCain), I propose to codify existing sanctions against Russia, imposed at the time the decrees of President Obama (that is, these decrees can cancel the new President). In addition, the authors of the bill propose to impose serious restrictions on investment in the oil and gas industry of Russia — to ban to invest more than $20 million a year in projects to develop the Russian companies of oil and gas fields and invest more than $5 million a year in the construction of oil and gas, but also to participate in the privatization of Russian state assets and the deployment of Russian debt. However, even if the bill is adopted, it is likely to be spelled right American President to deviate from sanctions in the interests of national security.
The Bank notes that the possible withdrawal of sanctions opens up profitable investment opportunities. To date, this possibility has not yet laid in the ruble, so it has growth potential. The ruble and ruble assets, “became the most strong and powerful assets in the world,” said Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin. Russia could regain its investment status from rating agencies later this year if S&P raise the country’s credit rating, according to Deutsche Bank. Now the Russian economy due to low vulnerability to external shocks perceived as a “safe haven” against the uncertainty of the political and economic course of the United States. Deutsche Bank recommends buying ruble-denominated bonds, expecting that in case of cancellation of sanctions the share of foreigners on the OFZ market will jump to more than 35% compared to current 30%.
Obama at the very end of his term (the inauguration of the trump will be held on January 20) has extended sanctions against Russia (until March 2018) imposed over the situation in Ukraine. “The actions and policies which have been adopted, these ordinances continue to pose unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the USA”, — stated in the message of the White house. At the same time Obama has extended the restrictions against Iran, Cuba, Libya, Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and the “terrorists who threaten to disrupt the peace process in the middle East”.