The US has entered a period of prolonged systemic crisis, which can last for decades and is associated with the beginning of a new political-economic cycle in the country’s history. President-elect Donald trump in this process plays the role more of a “signal of change”, radical forces, which are not able to formulate new principles of interaction in society, but may prepare ground for them. This is stated in the submitted on Wednesday, January 18, the report of the international discussion club “Valdai”. The report evaluates the policy Outlook future US President Donald trump, and his qualities as a statesman. A document entitled “Donald trump: the professional profile of the new President of the United States” was prepared by the program Director of the “Valdai” by Andrey sushentsov, as well as experts Andrey Bezrukov and Olga Rib.
The current situation in the U.S. resembles, according to the authors of the report, the period of the great depression, which was characterized by foreign and domestic political instability and high inquiry for social change. “The decision of global problems of the United States — a balanced and fair relationship with the world — will be possible only through the search for balance and justice in the country”, — the report says.
In these circumstances, the administration trump will be “hostage of several major tasks.” This is a request of society on social justice, the search for a new inter-ethnic consensus in the United States, overcoming the distrust of the society to the elites (which played into the hands of Trump until then, until he took charge of the country), as well as rethinking U.S. global leadership.
In economic sense, the States are in a better position, however, in many countries, including the US, is really present “crisis of the elites” associated with the lack of political and diplomatic strategy, said the programme Manager of the Carnegie Moscow Center Andrei Kolesnikov. “In this sense, the Russian elite is in crisis too, waiting for further developments in the coming months,” he said.
Pragmatist and egoist
Recalling the numerous the trump accusations of incompetence, experts “Valdai” has evaluated the personal and professional qualities trump as a politician. For example, the future President, in their opinion, the selection of advisors is guided by the principle of loyalty rather than competence. The ability of trump to political maneuvering remains open to question, however, in foreign policy will be guided by “pragmatism and national egoism.”
On the eve of the annual press conference, Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also spoke about the benefits of a pragmatic approach in diplomacy, opposing it to the “messianism” and the imposition of the values. “May trump a pragmatist, but in a different sense — emphasizes Kolesnikov from Carnegie. — So, a British exit from the EU is a pragmatic step, although from the point of view of economic indicators this is not so.”
In addition, having worked in the business for almost half a century, trump will begin to apply your business acumen and diplomatic direction, experts of the Valdai club. For example, in relations with China, they expect that Washington will have on Beijing’s unprecedented military and economic pressure, not from a desire to defeat the opponent, but to review relations with China on more favorable terms. A similar situation with the “rate hike” analysts see and in the words of trump against free trade agreements.
In relations between Russia and the U.S. trump also will adhere to the business approach. Being a pragmatist, trump may agree to go to improve relations and deepen cooperation, however, “will ask a high price for concessions to the US”. What will be the bargain these concessions is unclear, says Kolesnikov from Carnegie: between Moscow and Washington be on the agenda yet, she can theoretically appear only in the later stages of development cooperation, probably not earlier than in a year.
Not less important role is played by building a personal relationship between him and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, stated in the report. In October, before his victory in the presidential elections, trump said, “I don’t like or hate Putin. Maybe we will develop a good relationship may be terrible.” A year earlier, Putin spoke about trump as a politician “very bright and talented.”
In General, experts stress the “Valdai” with the trump of relations between Moscow and Washington can improve in certain areas and worsen in others — such conclusion can be made based on public statements of trump, the selection of advisers and Ministers. For example, if in Ukraine, Syria, and NATO expansion is expected to ease tensions, the US policy towards Iran and China can create new contradictions in relations with Moscow. US sanctions against Russia, however, will be gradually removed due to the pressure their opponents in the US and the EU, predict the report’s authors.