Swiss investment Bank Credit Suisse has named the ten difficult to predict events called “black Swan”, which, if implemented in 2017, that could have a significant impact on the global economy (report of the Bank is available). The Bank presents a similar forecast last 25 years.
“Black Swan” — the theory of almost unpredictable event with significant implications. Examples of such events include the collapse of the Soviet Union and the terrorist attacks in new York and Washington of 11 September 2001.
In the last year of the 10 events, the predicted Crédit Suisse, came true three — a British exit from the EU, the fall in oil prices to $28 and conversion of the assets of developing countries in the most attractive global stock market tools. The victory of Republican Donald trump for the presidential elections in the United States, which markets also referred to the events of “black Swan”, the Bank predicted.
According to the report “Global investment strategy”, including “black swans”, expected in 2017, the election of the President of France supporters of the country’s withdrawal from the EU, provocatrice marine Le Pen in the upcoming elections in April, the index, the S&P by year-end to 2000 points (as of 20 Jan – 2269,86), the increase of the Euro against the dollar by the end of the year to $1.2 per Euro (now $1,14), the slowdown in China’s GDP to 5%. Among lozhnopolaugitionah, but probable events, the Bank also considers the growth yield low risk assets by 15%, disappointing market policies of U.S. President Donald trump, the rise in oil prices by year-end to $75 (base forecast Crédit Suisse foresees an increase to $62 per barrel), rising Nikkei by year-end, up to 25,000 points. In addition, the number of “black swans” the Bank also announced the growth of the European pharmaceutical sector by 10% and increases the profitability of US government bonds to 4% (baseline forecast for growth to 3%).
In late December, the head of Sberbank German Gref said in an interview with “Vedomosti” that in 2017, “black swans” will happen and Russia will be “quite positive”. Dynamics of economic growth determines largely the price of raw materials and geopolitics, he said.