In the coming year, under the new President, the US will be forced to choose between saving power and involvement in world Affairs, the EU will be absorbed with internal problems, and many international issues have already begun to be resolved without their participation, the authors of the report “International threats to 2017” prepared by the analytical Agency “Foreign policy” (have).
A consequence of the dismantling of the old order became intolerable uncertainty, so in 2017 the world will try to focus in the hope that the main surprise behind, indicate the drafters of studies edited by the Agency head and program Director of the Valdai club Andrew Sushentsov and Andrei Bezrukov, Advisor to the President of “Rosneft”, the intelligence Colonel, retired. The report for discussion will be Wednesday at the site of the Valdai club.
The main uncertainty of 2017 for Russia, the authors call the future of Russian-American relations. The tone of the foreign policy of Russia in 2017 will ask Russian-American relations, agrees in his review of threats in the coming year, Ivan Timofeev, programme Director, Russian international Affairs Council (RIAC).
Four scenarios of relations between the US and Russia
The development of relations depends on how successfully will the President of the United States Donald Trump to realize his economic agenda, stated in the report.
The success of the economic program trump may lead to continuation of an aggressive foreign policy. In such a scenario, despite Moscow’s opposition, the new administration could begin the program of modernization of nuclear weapons, triggering a new phase of the nuclear arms race. On the wave of political success the United States can also step up military action in the middle East and to take measures to restrict imports, primarily from China. The latter will cause negative reaction on the part of Beijing. Moscow even despite the good personal relationship between trump and the President of Russia Vladimir Putin, the US will be perceived as an attempt to break the existing military-strategic parity and the relations will return to the previous tensions, experts predict. The crisis in Ukraine in this case will not be settled, and the creation of a broad front against terrorism will remain on paper, according to the report.
The success of the economic program of trump, however, may lead to positive consequences for Russia. Such a development is possible if the promised increased investment in military capabilities the United States will not aim to break nuclear parity with Russia, the report said. The development of relations can be based on the positive experience in the fight against ISIS, a good relationship between the presidents and subject to the change of leadership in European capitals. This scenario will bring the prospect of building international relations based on pragmatic cooperation. The Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov last week said that Russia pursues in foreign Affairs pragmatism and trump is known for the same approach. Positive experience in the fight against ISIS, good personal relations between presidents and the change of leadership in European capitals will reduce tensions in Russia’s relations with NATO and to begin the settlement of the Ukrainian issue.
If the economic program, trump will begin to “slip”, and his domestic political position will be weakened, the administration, trump would not put forward new initiatives neither in Europe nor in Asia nor in the middle East. It will present an unexpected and uncomfortable the freedom of action of allies and opponents of the United States, including Russia, experts predict.
If the economic program, trump will fail, the US will intensify the internal political struggle and the U.S. President may try to compensate for their weakness on the domestic front, the offensive on the external American war machine turns on at full power in the middle East, and the buildup of forces in Asia and the accusations of dumping will sharply worsen U.S.-China relations. After attempts to persuade Putin to form a strategic Alliance against China will not give result, Russia will again be in the list of “bad guys”, with all the consequences — sanctions, information attacks, increasing forces on the periphery of Russian borders, and most dangerous course to neutralize the Russian nuclear forces that threaten the foundations of the stability of the relationship.
Trump just started a job, but in those first days, events occurred that demonstrate the benefit that can be implemented second, the most acceptable to Russia, the scenario says by Andrey sushentsov. He draws attention to the fact that on January 23 the United States first announced Russia coordinates terrorist targets in Syria, which the Russian VKS impact, and decision trump to withdraw the U.S. from the trade agreement TPP. The latter shows that trump will be absorbed by the domestic economic agenda and will refrain from large-scale international projects, says Sushentsov.
Donald trump has proven his ability to break the patterns, it can go on a serious revision of Russia’s relations with the pragmatic objectives, specifies Timofeev from the INF Treaty. One of the major risks is the possible disappointment of the new U.S. President to normalize relations with Russia. And for such frustration are all conditions. The challenges in our relationship is that their solution will require a long, consistent and hard work. It is a process, not a moment, a marathon, in certain areas which will need a sprint.
The Russian interest and penalties
Russia is ready to normalize relations with the United States, provided that the modernization of nuclear weapons the US will not jeopardize nuclear parity with Russia, the beginning of the discussion about the problems of European security taking into account the concerns of Russia, the achievement of mutual understanding in the Ukrainian settlement and the lifting of sanctions, the resumption of cooperation to combat international terrorism, Washington’s refusal to worsening relations with China and Iran.
In 2016, the experts did not predict the lifting of sanctions, however, in 2017 they have a different Outlook. Sanctions can be eased or lifted in the near future as the issue of cancellation may no longer be linked to the Ukrainian crisis. This will contribute to the care of the Ukrainian story to the periphery, tired of Western elites from the intractability of Kiev, came to power in France and Germany’s leaders aimed at lifting sanctions.
However, the “big deal” on European security between Russia and the West, including the political changes in Ukraine in the coming year will not take place, given the forecast of experts. The West recognized Russia’s place in world Affairs will not begin with the post-Soviet space and the Middle East.