In 2016, most macro-economic indicators fell, but there had been few points of growth, including agriculture and industry. Such a conclusion can be made on the basis of the publication the Federal state statistics service information about socio-economic situation in the country at the end of last year.
In 2016, the continued decline in retail trade turnover: it fell by 5.2%, amounting to 28.1 per trillion, the Decline slowed, a year earlier, retail sales declined by 10% compared to 2014. Consumer activity is traditionally considered the main criterion of the rise or fall of the economy as a whole — previously dependent on the dynamics of the real wages of the population, but this trend has now been broken because people prefer not to spend earned money, and to save, said earlier the Ministry of economic development and the Central Bank.
Few expected that the decline in consumer activity will be significant, says economist “VTB the Capital” in Russia and the CIS Alexander Isakov. But the reasons — not the desire to save, he said: the whole year, the share of savings in incomes of the population fell. The reduction in turnover is due to “prolonged tightening of retail lending and the continuing debt to relieve pressure on households,” explains the economist.
In the past year increased real wages. They increased by 0.6% compared to the year 2015, although a year earlier fell by 9%. More stable trend shown in nominal wages, which grew by 7.7% (in 2015 growth was 5.1%). However, more precise conclusions about the well-being of Russian citizens can be done on the basis of data on real income, which take into account information not only on salaries but also on income from property, social benefits, and so on, and also on obligatory payments such as taxes and fees for housing. Incomes fall for three years — at the end of 2016, they declined by 5.9%, while the situation looks worse than last year, when they also declined, but only by 3.2% (however, if Rosstat did not take into account data on the Crimea and Sevastopol).
The dynamics of real incomes, is likely to unfold and will be closer to the data on real wages in the winter, predicts Isakov. In January, seniors will be given a lump sum of 5 thousand rubles., in February, happens indexing (5.4%), proves it. After the income, in his opinion, will increase and consumer activity.
If the data, giving an idea of the well-being of Russians still show a negative trend, such macroeconomic indicators as industry and agriculture, are growing. The industrial production index in 2015 has fallen by 3.4% in the past year grew by 1.1%. The greatest contribution to positive trends in mining (plus 2.5%). However, in 2017 the situation will unfold in the opposite direction due to the reduction of oil production agreed upon by OPEC, says Isakov. Growth were noted two other components of the industry — manufacturing (but only + 0.1%) and the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water (plus 1.5%).
Agriculture grew by 4.8%, but this was not a surprise: it showed a positive trend and by the end of 2015, and in 2016, Russia gathered a record grain harvest. The positive trends showed and freight turnover (plus 1.8%), which is considered a good indicator of the business cycle.
While Rosstat does not publish data on GDP for 2016, resulting in annual report only data for the first three quarters. According to the forecast of socio-economic development, based on which was imposed the budget for the next three years, the decline of the economy in 2016 should amount to 0.6% and a year later she needs to enter the height (plus 0.6 percent). Unemployment remains at low levels (5.3 percent, or 4.2 million people in December). By the end of 2016, the total number of unemployed decreased by 0.5% (previous year grew by 7.4%), says the report of Rosstat.