That “daughter” of Russian banks in Ukraine in November—December of 2016 began to record an active inflow of new customers in connection with the situation around one of the country’s largest banks — PrivatBank, said several sources close to the Bank.
Partly it was natural. “We didn’t expect such inflows have been in the end of the year to urgently increase capacity,” said one of them. Another added that some of the branches of the Bank in December even extended opening hours, given the increased client flows. According to another source in one of the Ukrainian “daughters” Russian banks, some banks deliberately stimulated flow, and offers for attracting customers, including PrivatBank, more profitable products.
“The flow of funds was large, it approached $1 billion, the Main beneficiaries of this flow among the Russian “daughters” were Sberbank and Alfa-Bank”, — said one of interlocutors of the edition. Another source said that this is not the limit and the final effect will be visible only after some time.
How it was
Information sources confirm, and the official statement analysts.
“The outflow of funds from PrivatBank was registered at the end of last year on the rise, rumors about a possible nationalization of the Bank. Volatility continued in the first days after the nationalization, however, the granting of state guarantees on deposits of physical persons PrivatBank helped to stabilize the situation,” said Fitch analyst Olga Ignatieva. “In conditions of instability the possibility of other foreign financial institutions, including the Russian “daughters” grew up,” added Moody’s analyst Elena Redko.
However, the beneficiaries of the situation with PrivatBank Russian steel players, along with other market participants.
Ukrainian banks publish statements on a quarterly basis. And reporting for the fourth quarter are not yet available. In the result to confirm the trend figures is not possible. In their qualitative assessments of the bankers in the majority do not deny the incident, but expressed about the situation very carefully.
Alfa-Bank said that he felt at the end of last year increased interest of legal entities and private entrepreneurs. “Any shocks with the Bank number 1 in any country give a good chance other players”, — said representative of Alfa-Bank. Cautious estimates and VTB, while talking about the stability of customer demand. “Talking about the inflow of deposits and the growth of the customer base in the “daughter” of the banks with Russian capital in November—December 2016 as the trend can not. On the background of the gradual reduction of interest rates all the players of the Ukrainian banking market, the situation was rather stable”, — said the representative of the press service of the Bank. The result of the redistribution of customer bases and resources will likely be noticeable not earlier than the end of the first quarter of 2017, he added. In the savings Bank the situation has not commented.
The national Bank of Ukraine has not confirmed nor denied information about the flow of funds within the system due to the nationalization of PrivatBank. There were limited only to the information that in November—December 2016 balances on deposits in solvent banks increased by 2.7% and in foreign currency decreased by 2.6%. “The outflow resulted in increased volatility in the currency market as a result of renewal situational factors”, — said the representative of the press service of the Bank.
The first evaluation
And yet, the first preliminary expert evaluation is already there. According to partner, Bain@company Yegor Grigorenko, the Ukrainian subsidiaries of Sberbank and Alfa-Bank tributary of the retail liabilities made, apparently, at least 10-15% from the base at the beginning of the year. According to some estimates, there are about a billion in dollar equivalent. “The question now is whether Russian banks, these clients hold. I think that for at least 6-12 months will be able to: the inflow was due more to the relatively high financial stability of these banks in the eyes of consumers and well-developed product line, and not price reasons, these factors play pretty long,” he added.