Heads of major Russian companies is considered a major threat for their business, the volatility of the exchange rate, said the domestic CEO survey, which was conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). This opinion is shared by 82% of respondents. In total, the study involved 88 top managers.
Last year unstable the ruble was also the main risk, however, then the concern about this factor was expressed by almost all respondents — 92% (data for 2015 PwC have not, and in 2014, the volatility cared only 55% of managers). While last week the Finance Ministry announced that from February will begin to send in reserves, oil revenues more than $40, and the Central Bank will buy foreign currency in the volume of these windfall profits. “Business will be looking for predictable rules of the game. If it (the plans of the Ministry of Finance. — ) will increase the predictability will be good. The first impression from the side — that business will remain cautious, as any change of approach would be perceived differently”, — said at the presentation of the overview of managing partner PwC Russia Igor Lotakov. The scheme of the Ministry of Finance ruble will weaken by 5-7%, assessed analysts at Sberbank CIB and ING.
Second and third places in the list of the major threats took over-regulation and geopolitical instability — they are afraid 80% of respondents. The risks of over-regulation in comparison with last year practically has not changed (if they is a concern for 81% of survey participants), although significantly increased relative to 2015, when they said 64% of top managers. But geopolitical instability began to worry more top managers- the company informed the relevance of this threat was noticed by 66% of respondents.
Among other threats — lack of certainty regarding the growth prospects of the economy, which concerned 79% of respondents. GDP in 2016, down 0.6%, announced on the eve of the Ministry of economic development. This year, in the forecast of socio-economic development includes growth of 0.6%, however, the first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said that the economy could grow by 1-2%.
Another significant threat is the increase in the tax burden (according to 71% of respondents). President Vladimir Putin announced the emergence of a new tax system in 2019, but its specific parameters are not yet known. The Ministry of Finance claimed that the amendments do not envisage a rise in the tax burden, but to its redistribution, particularly the increase in VAT while reducing insurance premiums for business. The uncertainty of tax reform may limit the planning horizon of investment in Russian business 2019 year, noted the experts of the Center for market studies Higher school of Economics.
Concerned the top managers of social instability (70%, 1 PP more than last year), capital availability (60%, a decline of 5 percentage points compared with the year 2016), and underdeveloped basic infrastructure (54%).
Respondents were also asked about their expectations for the global economy. Only 20% of managers in Russia believe that in 2017 it will grow (around the world think so, 29%). Compared to the previous year the proportion of such opinions of top managers in Russia have not changed. As for private provision, the revenue growth of their companies in the coming year are sure 77% of respondents — their number has increased dramatically compared to last year, when profit increase was expected just 57%. However, the level of optimism leaders still have not reached the figures of 2013, when revenue growth within 12 months expected 95% of respondents. The number of Russian top managers have improved, if you look at the prospect of not one but three years, and 82% expected earnings growth for a three-year horizon.