Martial law: can Kyiv to officially declare war

Calls from the presidential block

Despite the cessation of active hostilities in Avdeevka at the end of last week in Kiev again started talking about necessity of introduction of martial law in the Donbass.

The leader of “Batkivshchyna” ex-Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko announced on 6 February at the meeting of the conciliatory Council of the Verkhovna Rada: “we Need to impose martial law in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, to cease this rudeness to trade with the occupied territories.”

It was supported by the Deputy head of the Pro-presidential faction “block of Petro Poroshenko” (BPP) the wife of the Prosecutor General Yuri Lutsenko Iryna Lutsenko. “If the aggravation will continue for a long period and this will threaten the environmental security, human security and we will see that Putin is serious to advance on all fronts, we allow for the introduction of martial law,” — said the Deputy. However, the Deputy head of the BPP said that Ukraine can not be called part of the territory of Donbass occupied and can not refuse to supply the coal.

However, sources in the Parliament and military circles of Ukraine believe that there is no real preparation for the introduction of martial law is not conducted. “These conversations appear periodically, but it absolutely means nothing,” — said one of the sources.

Total mobilization

In accordance with the Ukrainian law on martial law is introduced by the decree of the President across the country or in certain regions for any period determined by the head of state.

May be imposed the obligation, and any units transferred to a “war footing”, explained the Ukrainian newspaper “Today”. The law allows you to confiscate property as legal and physical persons to impose a curfew and to settle in private apartments soldiers.

During the martial law command may restrict the freedom of movement of the population, test documents, goods, housing, and to prohibit strikes, meetings and rallies. In addition, this provision precludes the holding of elections.

Political speculation

As earlier told one of the Ukrainian deputies, seriously the imposition of martial law had indeed been discussed in the spring and summer of 2014, “but then Poroshenko did not go for it because the Bankova (street where is located the presidential administration of Ukraine. —) it was necessary to obtain control of the Verkhovna Rada after the elections.” After that, the question of martial law “actually lost the real meaning” and has become an object of “speculation politicians.”

In assessing the prospects for the introduction of martial law important chronology — first statement on the necessity of its introduction did Yulia Tymoshenko reminded the Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko. According to him, Irina Lutsenko were just reacting to the statement of Tymoshenko, arguing about the military situation, so I can’t say that BPP has raised the issue.

For Tymoshenko question about martial law — pure political strategy, the topic discussed in 2014, but, as it became known from the published transcript of the meeting of the national security Council from February 2014, the leader of “Batkivshchyna” opposed the introduction of such a provision, said Fesenko.

Experts agree that the likelihood of adoption of martial law would be high if the discussion happened last week, in a moment of aggravation of the situation in Avdeevka. But after all the international partners called on Ukraine and Russia to reduce tensions, to introduce such a provision would be to fail them.

The talk about the military position is PR Tymoshenko, who returned from Washington, inspired by the fact that the current US administration will not, of course, to support the Ukrainian government, said Ukrainian political analyst Vadim Karasev. BPP is forced to make excuses, he says. The introduction of martial law will make little difference in the conflict zone, there is a paramilitary situation — are civil-military administration, he said. The intensification of the political rhetoric, he explains the preparation of Tymoshenko and other opposition parties for possible early elections.

Do not predict the introduction by Ukraine of martial law in the DNI. This will mean not only a complete breakdown of any negotiations, but the sharp deterioration of Ukraine’s relations with the West, said the representative of the self-proclaimed Republic in Minsk contact group Denis Putilin.

The introduction of martial law will contribute to the escalation of tension in the region and “torpedoes” the Minsk agreement, consent of the head close to the Kremlin Center for political conjuncture Alexei Chesnakov.

In anticipation of the Normandy meeting

On Tuesday, February 7, in the faction “Opposition bloc” in Parliament demanded the immediate convening of a meeting in the Normandy format. The corresponding decree was registered by the co-Chairperson of the faction Oleksandr Vilkul. He called on the leaders of the Quartet as soon as possible to sit down at the negotiating table, to prevent “a humanitarian disaster and further destruction of infrastructure.” The resolution registered in the database of the Verkhovna Rada, but the Parliament is not considered.

On the same day, Russia again accused Ukraine of violating the Minsk agreements. As told journalists the representative of Russia in the Minsk group Boris Gryzlov, “the most important point” about the withdrawal of heavy weapons still not implemented, but it had to be done on 5 February: “From the reports of the OSCE SMM and messages from areas adjacent to the line of demarcation in the Donbass, we know that in the area controlled by the Armed forces of Ukraine continues the movement of heavy equipment, and the supply of arms and ammunition.”

At the same time the President of Russia Vladimir Putin for the first time since the escalation of the conflict in the Donbass held telephone talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. They agreed on the need to hold meetings in the “Normandy format” (Ukraine, Russia, France, Germany). Soon to be held contacts between foreign Ministers and assistants to the leaders, and then discuss the situation should continue at the highest level, said the press service of the Kremlin.

The official representative of the foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova said that he does not have information about when held talks with Ministers.

Avdeevka front — change

Fighting under the Avdeevka, located 6 km from Donetsk and controlled by Ukraine intensified on 29 January and lasted until 5 February. The fighting with rocket artillery and tanks, is prohibited by the Minsk agreements, have become the strongest in 2014.

According to the humanitarian centre of Rinat Akhmetov, during the fighting 33 civilians were injured (including a British journalist), four people were killed (employee of the plant, the driver of the rescue car and two residents of Donetsk).

The city was deprived of light and water and was under threat of disconnection of heating due to the possible stop of Avdeevsky coke-chemical plant (AKHZ) after the bombing. For the immediate ceasefire urged members of the negotiation group in Minsk on 1 February. Then, according to the sources , was able to arrange the uninterrupted supply of gas at our plant, to prevent it stops.

Military losses of the parties to the conflict appreciated contradictory: in the headquarters of the antiterrorist operation reported nine dead Ukrainian military from January 29 to February 4. The self-proclaimed head of the DND Alexander Zakharchenko said more than 200 killed and wounded by Ukrainian forces. From the DNR killed 60 people, said the 112-th channel by the press officer of the 27th brigade of the Armed forces of Ukraine Olena Mokrenchuk. The authorities DND did not give an overall figure for the losses.

The evening of 5 February, the parties announced the termination of active fighting in Avdeevka. As reported a day later on the page in Facebook the General Director of Avdiivka coke plant Musa Magomedov, after that, workers were able to restore electricity to the city and Donetsk filtration station. The plant itself continues to be in a state of preservation, repair work continues.