The Place Of Russia
Russia’s place in the top ten largest economies in the world by purchasing power parity (PPP) will not change by 2050; the country will still occupy sixth place in the global top 10, the report of the consulting Agency PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) entitled “the global economy in 2050”. If in 2016, Russia’s GDP at PPP was $3,75 trillion, by 2030 it will increase to $4.74 trillion, and by 2050 — to $7,13 trillion. However, during this time the country’s place in the global top 10 will not change, it will remain in the sixth spot. In the countries with the largest GDP at market exchange rates Russia will rise from 11 th to 10-th position the index will increase from $1,268 trillion in 2016 to $5,127 trillion in 2050. According to analysts PwC that by 2050 Russia will demonstrate negative population growth (-0.3% in the year) and real GDP per capita at 2.2% per year. GDP in terms of domestic currency will increase by 1.9% per year, while in terms of USD by 4.2% per year, experts expect.
E7 instead of G7
Global PPP GDP is to grow at a rate of 2.6% per year and will double already by 2042, according to the report. By 2050 the figure will reach $127,5 trillion, according to the PwC. In General, the expansion of the world economy will overtake the population growth. This will contribute to action conducive to economic growth modes (excluding long-term protectionist measures), and lack of global cataclysms, carrying risks for humanity.
The center of the global economy will continue to shift from developed Europe to developing countries in Asia and beyond. The latter will continue to be the main driver of global growth. In terms of economic growth they more than twice surpass the G7, predicts PwC. The growth of sevens the ascending economies (E7) — Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey — in the next 34 years will be 3.5 vs. 1.6% of the group of seven advanced economies: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the USA. The size of the combined GDP of the E7 also exceed twice the GDP of the G7, experts say. In 2015, the figures are almost equal.
The rising economy can increase its share of world GDP from 35 to 50% by 2050, while the share of the G7, by contrast, will be reduced to slightly more than 20%. The share of the 27 economies of the EU (excluding the UK) in the structure of global GDP by 2050 will be reduced to less than 10% and yield to India’s GDP.
China will remain the leader in the ranking of economies by PPP by 2050 it will have 20% of world GDP, or $58.5 per trillion. Behind him in the top 5 will go to India, USA, Indonesia and Brazil. The three fastest growing economies in the world in the next 34 years will include Vietnam, India and Bangladesh. Among the major EU economies will be the fastest growing Poland, experts expect PwC. After the completion of the transition Brexit, the UK will reach the growth rate, outstripping the average in the EU.
In the foreseeable future, developed countries will get ahead of emerging income. The emerging economy is able to overcome this gap by 2050, if can realize their growth potential. For this they need to implement structural reforms to improve macroeconomic stability, to diversify their economies by reducing their dependence on natural resources, and to increase the effectiveness of political and legal institutions, says PwC.