The flow of dollars in the foreign exchange market and thus increase the supply of currency on the Moscow stock exchange can be associated with Rosneft’s purchase of shares in Bashneft from minority shareholders of the latter, analysts of Sberbank CIB.
“Under exposed investors of the offer “Rosneft” should pay until February 16. Redemption may require up to 64 billion rubles, if the offer will benefit all minority shareholders (except the Republic of Bashkortostan),” explained chief strategist at Sberbank CIB market currencies and interest rates, Tom Levinson.
According to him, for redemption will be charged 85% of shares of “Bashneft” belonging to “Rosneft” and refused to sell their shares of Bashkiria, the purchase of which will cost Rosneft approximately 54 billion rubles.
The trader “Renaissance Capital” Levon, Atanesyan also said that from February 8, on the market there are active sales of the American currency, it has influenced the strengthening of the rouble and could be a result of the sale of dollars “Rosneft”.
Analyst “Discovery Broker” Andrei Kochetkov does not exclude that in the next two weeks, the dollar may fall to 55. as the market pushing the sale of currency not only Rosneft, but also other companies to pay taxes.
“Only for the payment of taxes companies will have to sell currency in the amount of about $10 billion,” — said Kochetkov.
At the same time, Sberbank CIB’s experts believe verbal interventions by the Russian authorities will prevent the exchange rate of the dollar to consolidate below the mark 57 RUB, Atanesjan does not expect further strengthening of ruble. According to him, even if “Rosneft” has not collected necessary to calculate the offer amount, the currency market taking into account the already too strong RUB she will come out more cautiously.
In turn the press-Secretary of Rosneft Mikhail Leontyev said that the actions of the company do not, could cause a strengthening of the ruble, as it had enough time to attract needed to make payments to minority shareholders of Bashneft rubles and did not go to the foreign exchange market simultaneously.
“We have a balanced and long-term policy work on foreign exchange markets and sufficient cash flow liquidity to meet its obligations to redeem shares-in-time”, — said Leontiev, refusing to name the amount you spend by the company for this purpose.
October 12, 2016 “Rosneft” has bought a controlling stake in Bashneft for RUB 329 billion the Company offered to minority shareholders in Bashneft to buy back their shares at 3706,41 RUB apiece November 15, 2016. From the beginning of 2017, the dollar against the ruble fell by more than 6.5%, while during the first two weeks of February, he fell almost continuously, down 14 days more than 5% and several times updating a year and a half at least.
To win back some losses, the dollar was helped by the statement by the press Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov, the head of state intends to discuss the strengthening of the ruble with the Minister of economic development Maxim Oreshkin.
Following the meeting with the Minister, however, no statements have been made, and the dollar fell again. During today’s trading on the Moscow exchange value of the U.S. currency fluctuates slightly above 57 rubles, which is about four rubles less than the closing of the last trading session of 2016.
“We estimate the equilibrium level of the dollar at the level of 60 rubles., which will be achievable at the first pullback in oil prices or the tightening of the devaluation of rhetoric from the authorities”, — said the head of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev.
In the report, analysts of ROSBANK it is noted that the sharp depreciation of the ruble after the statement of Peskov demonstrates how “quick and painful might be a reversal of the market in the event of signs of interference by the Russian authorities.”
An analyst at Nordea Bank Olga Lapshin believes that the rouble will receive support from the tax period until the end of February. “In March, our expectations for the course, less positive,” she said. In turn, analyst at Promsvyazbank Michael Poddubsky called a logical rollback of courses in the direction 59-60 rubles per dollar.
In the report of Raiffeisenbank emphasizes that the price of a barrel of Brent at $55 (currently the rate is about $55,8) equilibrium exchange rate (given intervention) is approximately 63.5 rubles to the dollar.
“Thus, the potential for the weakening of the ruble from the current levels of 11% (which ceteris paribus can be realized within six months),” according to the analysts of Raiffeisenbank.