The European Commission has prepared and published on behalf of the President Jean-Claude Juncker report with five possible development scenarios of the EU after leaving the Union of great Britain. Study evaluates prospects for enterprises until 2025 with consideration of a political course which will choose Brussels after the completion of Brexit.
The first scenario is that the policy of the EU leadership did not change: Brussels will continue to implement approved over the last three years of the reform, concentrating on the development of the economy, labour market, attraction of investments. However, member countries of the EU retain considerable autonomy in matters of security and diplomacy, and the unity between them may still be at risk in the event of political crises.
The second scenario describes a reduction of the role of the EU to a purely economic Union, in fact, the common market. The maintenance of such a market will be the only concern of the Brussels bureaucracy. According to Juncker, it will return to a situation in which European countries will address the issues on a bilateral basis, which reduces the possibility of any collective response to external challenges.
The third scenario is the most compromise: allowing the countries to decide for themselves whether or not to go for deeper integration. On the one hand, this can lead to the progress of the EU in the areas of security, Finance and social policy, but on the other makes of European citizens in obviously unequal rights — it depends on whether they agreed the government on further integration or not.
The fourth scenario is “do less, but with greater efficiency.” Juncker proposes to define several spheres of economy and politics, where Brussels will exhibit the highest activity and determination. For example, we are talking about the development of “green” energy, technologies and the digital economy. Speaking of cons, Juncker fears that the 27 EU countries will not be able to come to a compromise about which sectors to prioritize.
Finally, the most optimistic scenario of the European Commission — “working together more.” This means greater integration of European countries, combined with improving the efficiency and performance of the Brussels bureaucracy. The EU will act as a single player in world economy and politics, however, the main disadvantage, according to Juncker, that “a significant part of society will refuse the EU’s legitimacy”, suggesting that Brussels takes away power from national authorities.
The European Commission report released on the eve of the 60-year anniversary of the Treaty of Rome that laid the foundations of the EU, which will be celebrated on March 25. At the same time, the UK government plans by March 31 to begin negotiations with Brussels on the country’s withdrawal from the European Union. Under the Lisbon Treaty, the negotiations should not go more than two years — so that by the spring of 2019 Britain should secede from the Union.