For the first time since 2013 in Russia increased migration growth

Recovery migration

About increasing net migration in Russia for the first time since 2013, said in the March issue of the monitoring of socio-economic status and health, Institute for Social analysis and forecasting Ranhigs (). Experts refer to the statistical Bulletin and the special report of Rosstat.

The report shows that in 2012 the total international net migration in Russia was 294,9 thousand people, in 2013 – 295,9 thousand. Then she began to decline — to 280,3 thousand in 2014, 245,4 thousand in 2015. However, in 2016 net migration rose to a 261,9 thousand.

Compared to 2015, the migration gain increased exchange with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan. Positive migration growth recovered with Uzbekistan.

Decreased net migration with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Moldova. The main migration donor for Russia in 2016 remained Ukraine (118 thousand, net migration). However, it is still lower than last year is 146.1 thousand.

Analyzing absolute figures, the authors of the report note that over the last 3 years, starting with the greatest volumes of migration 2014, the number of nationals of the major donor countries of labor migration has decreased. From Uzbekistan — more than 30% in comparison with 2014, Tajikistan — 13%. For three years decreased the number of migrants from Azerbaijan and Moldova.

According to the Director of programs, international Alliance “Labor migration” Sergey Boldyrev, the number of migrants from CIS in Russia decreased in January 2017 by 5% compared with the year 2016 (from 8.2 million to 8.1 million).

However, the share of CIS citizens among all residing foreigners is kept at around 85%, the report said. Still does not restore the pre-crisis level the number of foreigners from developed Western countries, experts say. The decline in net migration with foreign countries significantly after a surge in 2011-2013. If in 2012 and 2013 net migration from these countries has exceeded 20 thousand people, then in 2014 it was $ 10 or less thousand.

The reasons for the fall and rising

In the report the dynamics of migration indicators linked to the changing situation in the countries of migration partners, as well as changes in Russia itself. The migration process depends on the liberalization or tightening of policies in the field of migration and citizenship, as well as socio-economic indicators, according to the report.

The decrease in the total number of international migrants in 2014 Boldyrev calls smooth and binds with the introduction of sanctions against Russia. “[After the imposition of sanctions against Russia] has deteriorated [Russian] economic situation and the deterioration led to lower demand for labor resources,” — said the expert .

Positive dynamics of net migration from neighboring countries in the last year connected with “hope for recovery”, believes Director of the Center for ethnopolitical and regional researches Vladimir Mukomel. “Migrants from neighboring countries are mostly coming to work, and now the situation [in Russia] are relatively stable,” he explained.

The centers of gravity

The main centers of attraction of migrants, is seen in the report, has not changed. The leaders are Moscow and Moscow region (the total migration growth in 2016 amounted to
132,8 thousand people), St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region – 66,4 thousand, Krasnodar Krai – 55,7 thousand, Sevastopol and Republic of Crimea – 24.1 thousand

At the same time, many regions of the Volga Federal district continues to lose population, as the regions of the European North, the North Caucasus, Siberia and the Far East. From last in the previous three years on average left 20 thousand people, the report noted. It is not excluded that in the future migration loss of population of regions of the Far East will cease, the researchers note, but so far across the country they remain at the periphery.

The report notes: recorded by Rosstat the scale of emigration from the country (its sequential decline since 2000 years) does not confirm foreign statistics. For most countries the deviations of the numbers of immigrants from Russia from Rosstat data up to several times according to the monitoring. In the report we are talking about migration to foreign countries, but not in the CIS, explained one of the authors of the report, leading researcher of the Institute of social analysis and forecasting Ranhigs Nikita Mkrtchyan.

“The statistics are better collected in the countries and regions of arrival: leaving Russia, we never are required to report, and in the countries where found people leave, they take into account”, — he said. According to Mkrtchyan, in the countries of arrival statistics of immigrants from Russia significantly more, and due to the fact that after moving they are “likely to start to register, get residence permits”. Statistics may vary “and three, ten times,” but in the countries of arrival she is much more the expert explained.