The main threat
Anti-corruption campaigns, which took place on 26 March in many cities of Russia, can have long-term risks. This is stated in the report, “March 26: Brickset effect in Russia”, which was prepared by the experts of holding “Minchenko consulting” (have). Anti-corruption agenda could unite different social groups (the authors cited the example of hipsters and truckers). Experts say the risks for the government if you combine liberal-democratic and livesocial protest movements.
Sunday, March 26, to protest actions, announced by opposition politician Alexei Navalny, have joined 100 cities in Russia and four abroad. Only 24 of them were approved platform for the protesters. The rally took place under anti-corruption slogans, most of them were devoted to the investigation of Bulk on the assets Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev “It is not Dimon.” Only in Moscow on the results of the unsanctioned rally were detained more than 1 thousand people.
Another serious risk of protests — potentially they can “give” one of the most radical force. One of the authors of the report, the analyst Yevgeny Minchenko gives the example of a populist “five star Movement” in Italy and the left party “Podemos” in Spain, which in their countries had the support of the opposition majority. In Russia, according to Minchenko, the head of the protest can be Navalny, who in December announced his intention to run for President in 2018.
“But Navalny has limiters — label American agent and position on Crimea, plus he already new enough, — said Minchenko. — So you can see a new form”.
The unification of different forces in the protests against corruption has not happened yet. Environmentalists, truckers and other participants in the strikes, the rallies, Navalny was not involved with the report. But it is likely that this will happen in the future, are discussed by experts.
While the creation of alliances between different protest groups — in particular, young people and truck drivers — does not seem very probable, said the President of the Center for political technologies Igor Bunin, “It may happen and may not happen until it is obvious that they have different requirements. Students came out against the imposed image of the world with Orthodoxy and nation, and rig workers who protest against a particular injustice,” says the analyst. In his opinion, in the future everything will depend on the actions of the government: “If it will solve the problem then it is unlikely that someone will join, if not — then any strike is possible, but it’s all theory”.
The Trump Card Of The Kremlin
A serious threat to power in Russia anti-corruption protests yet are not, because the Bulk of the action though was massive, as the number is not comparable to the performances at the Marsh in 2011, according to the scientists “Minchenko Consulting”. On 26 March the largest rally, in Moscow, has collected more than 30 thousand participants, although five or six years ago, on Bolotnaya square in the capital, going about 100 thousand people.
While the main guarantor of stability of power — “the high rating first person that pulls for a while and the ratings of other representatives of the authorities,” the report said. However, the effect of the annexation of Crimea sharply lifted in 2014, the rating of President Vladimir Putin, is gradually exhausting itself, convinced the scientists. Therefore, the authorities, in the opinion of the authors of the study, to think “on the agenda of the next term of Vladimir Putin and attractive image of the future”.
Political analyst Mikhail Vinogradov partly agree with the authors of the report, but believes that the risks after the protests is much stronger than indicated in the report. “They can be divided into categories. The first is the confusion of power: many were convinced that the protests have ended and more of them will not. The second risk on a larger scale, is the emergence among young people such alarm that they were not only born under Putin, but will die under Putin”, — he said .
Authorities incorrectly responded to investigate the Bulk of Medvedev, and the ensuing protests, believe in the “Minchenko Consulting”.
Film-investigation “you do not Dimon” has been posted by the Fund of struggle against corruption (FBK) 2 Mar. It tells that the Russian Prime Minister has “huge tracts of land in the elite areas, manages yachts, apartments in historic mansions, agro-complexes and wineries in Russia and abroad”.
On the day of the release of the film FBK press Secretary of the head of the government Natalia Timakova said that the investigation is “distinct pre-election character” and it is meaningless to talk about “the attacks of the opposition and the convict character.” Thus it is, according to the report “Minchenko Consulting”, secured the Bulk of the image of a fighter with the government and admitted his participation in the presidential elections.
The next day, March 3, on the investigation spoke to the press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov. He called Navalny “a known convicted citizen.” Thus, he acknowledged that the Kremlin follows the activities of an opposition politician, according to political analysts. The Kremlin has chosen the wrong strategy of trying to marginalize the Bulk (Recalling his prior convictions), according to the report.
In their opinion, shouldn’t the authorities try to switch the attention of the media for other scandalous reasons (for example, using the statements of the Deputy Natalia Poklonskaya about semireducible the bust of Nicholas II). All this indicates “the lack of coordination and decision-making center” in the government, the report said.
As a bad reaction to the protests Vinogradov cited the example of Samara region Governor Nikolay Merkushkin, who, after the rallies organized a forum on “no to Extremism!” and made a speech in defense of Medvedev. Speech by the Governor about the rampant extremism in the country and specifically in Samara was interrupted by a blind student Valery Remizov, who sang with a guitar ditty: “Kolya, Kolya, what’s beginning! Why are you, nick, right, I bezlimitku is restricted?” Remizov complained about cuts in the regional government transport benefits on the social map and the reduction of surcharges to pensions.
Brickset effect in the world
Performances March 26 — part of the global agenda, according to the report of scientists. Russian protests, the authors compare British exit from the EU and the victory of Donald trump at the election of the President of the United States. The current protest is evidence that “has come to Russia Antibiotika wave, which in recent years has manifested itself in major Western democracies”, they say.
Brickset, victory trump and protests in Russia — all this, according to the authors of “Minchenko Consulting”, the results of the same mistakes of the authorities in communication with the population. All these events occurred against the background of rising antielitnye and antiglobalization sentiments, as well as declining confidence in political institutions and the growing popularity of opposition movements “without a positive agenda,” the report said.
While in the US and the UK, and in Russia representatives of antiaritmicski movements used modern methods of communication — viral video (“you do not Dimon”), instant messengers and social networking (meetings in Russian cities were organized through groups in “Vkontakte”). The result has been government control over publications in traditional media and on the other hand, a vigorous discussion of the protests on the Internet. Due to the difference in the agenda of the media and informal media and social networks has arisen a distrust of the traditional media and status figures, according to the study authors.
“These trends contributes to Brickset multiplier effect. Increasingly, we will see sudden and loud failures of the communication strategy of power, which was done in great rates and which seemed perfect a few years ago,” the report reads.
Reaction to the protests
30 Mar Putin at the Arctic forum commented on the protests. “I think it is wrong when political forces try to use this tool [to combat corruption] for his promotion, and not to improve the situation in the country. It is a tool of the “Arab spring”: we know very well what it led to,” said he.
The day before, a statement on the demonstrations was made by the head of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, who said that, in her opinion, the government should not “say or pretend that nothing is happening,” and urged the authorities “to discuss ways of solving” issues that concern the population.
With a call “to give a clear answer” to the questions contained in the investigation of the Bulk, after March 26 were made by the leader of “Fair Russia” Sergey Mironov. Prior to this, the Communist faction demanded to check the facts from the investigation the FCO for Medvedev.
The scientists conclude that the government has ignored the rally on March 26 (“United Russia” and onf they did not pay attention). At the same time, the parliamentary opposition has suggested that the “protest potential will result in recurring appearances of this kind.”
According to Mikhail Vinogradov, this is not surprising: “the Answer is never symmetric, and emotions are always stronger content.” “But something after the meetings could be, at least technically, to oppose the average age and youth, to incite the young people of generation Y to generation Z, to initiate an investigation against Medvedev and neutralize Navalny,” he said.