Which strategy to chose the trump in relations with North Korea

Ghost strike

The US offered China more favorable trade terms in exchange for assistance in countering North Korea, said the President of the United States Donald trump in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, published on April 13. “You want a great bargain? Solve the problem in North Korea”, — quotes trump’s newspaper. The topic of North Korea was also discussed at the talks U.S. Secretary Rex Tillerson in Moscow on 12 April. Russia and the United States agree that North Korea must give up nuclear weapons, said Tillerson at a press conference in Moscow. Russia, according to Tillerson, may prompt the North Korean regime to change course.

Dissatisfaction with the way the situation is developing in North Korea, trump expressed during the election campaign. The concern of the United States and neighboring Korea, Japan and South Korea intensified after Pyongyang March 6, launched four ballistic missiles that flew about 1 thousand km and fell into the sea. Three rockets were within the exclusive economic zone of Japan. The official news Agency of the DPRK said that the purpose of the launches was a testing blow on the us military bases in Japan. The UN Security Council in response has adopted a statement condemning the missile launches.

A day after the launches, the U.S. sent two mobile missile complex THAAD to South Korea to begin deploying a missile defense system on the Peninsula. March 17, U.S. Secretary of state Rex Tillerson during his visit to South Korea said that the policy of strategic tolerance of the United States against the DPRK over. “We are considering several new measures in the field of security and diplomacy. All options are possible,” said Tillerson.

USA, Japan and South Korea do not exclude that in the near future North Korea will conduct another nuclear or missile test on the occasion of the April 15 birthday of the first leader of the country Kim Il sung. Nuclear test site the northerners are ready for action, announced April 13, CNN with reference to the report of the study organization of 38 North.

The government of Japan on April 13 held an emergency meeting of the national security Council to discuss responses to the situation around North Korea, reported on its results the Secretary General of the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan Acehide Suga. “There is a possibility that North Korea may already be equipped with warheads with sarin to attack,” — said on the same day in Parliament, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. On April 16 in South Korea with a visit to Vice-President Mike Pence and the government in Seoul hoped that during this visit, the signal is sent to Pyongyang to cease nuclear development, reported the South Korean foreign Ministry.

To resolve the North Korean nuclear program through negotiations Russia, North Korea, South Korea, USA, China and Japan have tried since August 2003. At the beginning of the path of negotiation, Pyongyang agreed to freeze its nuclear program and to begin the dismantling of the reactor in the nuclear complex in Yongbyon, but in 2008, talks have stalled, agreements have been broken.

Since the 1990s, with the United States against North Korea acted the doctrine of “strategic patience”, which was based on the idea that the North Korean regime is doomed to collapse for internal reasons, it is enough to press on with sanctions and isolated. However, the situation in Korea stabilized, there was a partial dismantling of the socialist system, economic growth began, and stabilized the position of ruler Kim Jong-UN, reminiscent of the leading researcher of the Institute of Far Eastern studies, Vasily Kashin. Despite his isolation, North Korea since 2010, and I started to make progress in the defense industry, missile technology, began to be exported to Iran and Pakistan, there were indications that the country may be created ICBMs reaching the United States. All this has led to a rethinking of policy towards Korea began to change even under Obama and continues under the new President trump, said Kashin.

Methods of pressure

In Washington discusses several ways of exerting pressure on Pyongyang from sensitive increased sanctions to a military strike, said, citing U.S. officials, Reuters, April 13. There is a “large range of options, including trading quarantine,” one of them said to Reuters. However, the use of this quarantine will have China — a major trade and economic partner of North Korea. Customs data show that imports of coal to China from North Korea decreased by 51.6% in the first three months of this year (compared to the same period in 2016). China, Reuters writes, has stopped issuing permits for the import of coal 18 Feb. The second possibility is to ban the export to North Korea of oil. This measure will be most painful and destabilizing, said the source to Reuters. According to South Korea, China deliver to neighbors about 500 thousand tons of crude oil. “To stop oil supply for an extended period would be a serious economic penalty that would go to China. But it is highly unlikely that Beijing will take such a step,” said Bonnie Glaser of the Center for strategic and international studies (USA). In 2003, China for three days has stopped the supply of oil, but the reasons for this are not explained.

“North Korea is looking for a problem. If China decides to help us, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them!” — threatened April 11 on Twitter, the President of the United States Donald trump. 13 APR trump in a new tweet repeated the installation. Applies Washington and military pressure. Trump told the WSJ that on April 11 called the President of China XI Jinping and asked him to convey to Kim Jong UN that the US not only has carriers, but nuclear submarines.

One of the purposes of the application of US strike on 7 April at the air base in Syria was to demonstrate the capabilities and commitment of the administration of trump, does not exclude the Cashin. The attack on the airbase Shirt Tillerson before the trip to Russia was made to demonstrate what measures are ready to go, the US administration in another strategically important region, described the reaction to the strike in the Russian foreign Ministry close to the office, the interlocutors of the newspaper “Kommersant”.

China military action firmly rejects. Nothing to solve, said on April 13, foreign Minister Wang Yi the US attack on North Korea for military reasons seems unreal, since in any scenario the US is not able to ensure the security of Japan and South Korea in the event of a response from Pyongyang, explains Kashin.

The situation is very difficult, Beijing is forced to respond to blackmail from the United States, which could lead to the convergence of their positions, said head of the Centre of Russian strategy in Asia of the Institute of Economics Georgy Toloraya. Russia calls for negotiated solution, but find it extremely difficult, as Pyongyang is using the nuclear issue as a way of self-preservation, to abandon him, he needs multilateral security guarantees that the parties can not provide. Russia now has little opportunity to influence the situation, indicates Colora.