Moscow. April 17. The base variant of the forecast of the government in 2018 to 2020, assuming growth in GDP of 1.5% per year, does not meet set by the President tasks on output growth in the Russian economy at the turn of 2019-2020 years faster than the global average, said the presidential aide Andrei Belousov. He also suggested that the government forecast of 2% growth for 2017 is “the maximum possible growth (in 2017)”.
“Today, the forecast for 2018-2019-2020 years assumes GDP growth of 1.5% and dynamics of investments of 2%. That is, GDP growth is lower than projected for this year (2%), and the dynamics of investment is about the same. And it does not fit into the order of the President on the release of the dynamics higher than the global average rate,” – said Belousov. Therefore, he said, “the government has instructed the Ministry of economic development to develop a forecast based on the scenario that was presented, perhaps adding the growth rate of the economy, based on current dynamics and the measures that have been proposed”
“The Prime Minister has instructed at the meeting to work more on this Outlook for a more complete account of the measures taken by the government to accelerate economic growth”, – said Belousov.
Commenting on the presence of the target scenario in the forecast, which assumes output growth of over 3% in 2020, A. Belousov noted that “target the forecast, conservative forecast is all some calculations that will skirt the basic – the basic option, which is assumed in the calculations.” “Operationally, the role is played only the basic version,” said assistant to the President.
As reported, the government of the Russian Federation at the meeting of 13 April, approved the main parameters of the forecast socio-economic development of Russia for 2018 and the planned period 2019-2020, as well as limit levels of prices (tariffs) for services of natural monopolies during this period, told journalists in a press-service of the Cabinet of Ministers. “The basic variant adopted as the basis. This will continue to take the necessary measures to achieve the target development scenario,” – said the representative of the Cabinet.
As reported, basic and the target scenario of the forecast for 2017-2020 years calculated from the annual average price of Urals oil in $45,6, $40,8, $41,6 $42.4 per barrel, respectively. The target scenario suggests the implementation of the upcoming action plan of the government to accelerate economic growth. In the baseline scenario, the GDP growth in Russia is expected at 2% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018-2020. In the target scenario, forecast GDP growth in Russia is expected in 2018 1.7% 2019 2.5% 2020 3.1%.