Off the grid: who will be the next President of France

Off the grid: who will be the next President of France


No miracles

In the second round of presidential elections in France were a centrist Emmanuel macron and marine Le Pen, who heads the movement “national front”. As reports the French interior Ministry, after processing of all ballots macron scored 23.8% of the vote, Le Pen is 21.5%. The turnout was 78.7%, slightly lower than in previous elections in 2012 (80,4%). The first round took place on 23 April, the second will be held on 7 may.

The leading candidate of the center-right party “the Republicans” françois Fillon came in third with a score of 19.9%. The representative of the leftist bloc, Jean-Luc Mélenchon received 19,6%. In real terms, the gap between them was less than 100 thousand votes. The candidate from the ruling Socialist party, Benoit Hamon received the fifth result with 6.4% of votes — he has failed to win in any of the 101 departments of France.

The final results for each candidate with an accuracy of 1% coincide with the data of pre-election polls and the exit polls.

After the announcement of the first results macron called on all patriots of France to rally around his candidacy to prevent a victory of the far right. On appeal have already responded to all major political forces in France and abroad. To support the Macron in the second round called on Fillon, the outgoing President, Francois Hollande, the socialist candidate Amon, Prime Minister Bernard Breech. Communist Jean-Luc Mélenchon has refused to encourage their supporters of any candidate in the second round.

Outside of France to support the Macron spoke German leadership: the office of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and foreign Minister, Sigmar Gabriel. Vice-speaker of the German Parliament Alexander Lambsdorff even called Macron the “French Kennedy”. According to the Minister of foreign Affairs of Spain Alfonso Dastis, the expected victory of the Macron in the second round, coupled with the result of the March elections in the Netherlands mark a departure from populism toward a single European project.

Frostily commented on the results of the elections in the Kremlin: “We are supporters of building a good and mutually beneficial relations with respect to the choice of the French people,” — said press Secretary of Russian President Dmitry Peskov.

Anti-system rotation

Judging by the opinion polls, Makron virtually secured victory in the second round and the presidency of France. The confrontation with Le Pen, he may rely on the result from 59 to 71%, if we take the data of different polls over the last month.

In the remaining before the second round two weeks Makron will use the rejection of the majority of the French Le Pen, as it was in the 2002 elections, explained the Director of the Franco-Russian analytical center “Observo” Arnaud Dubien. In 2002, the father of the current leader of the National front, Jean-Marie Le Pen in the only time left in the second round of the presidential election, but the leading political forces of France supported his rival, Jacques Chirac and Le pen got only 18% votes.

The result of 21.5% for marine Le Pen — the highest in the presidential election for the entire half-century history of the “National front”. The secret of the success of Le Pen is that she managed to attract not satisfied with life and disillusioned with the globalization of the electorate, according to the expert of the Higher school of Commerce (HEC Paris) Florent Parmentier. However, many French people refuse to accept the far-right ideology of her party, he said.

Marine Le Pen

Photo: Charles Platiau / Reuters

A significant part of the electorate is alarming and frankly Pro-Russian position of Le Pen, draws attention Parmentier. “It is perceived as a candidate who is willing to make concessions to Russia, while the macron is a principled politician who will be unlikely to sacrifice their values for the sake of compromise with the Kremlin”, — the expert explains.

The results of the first round saying that “won update request”, which began long ago, emphasizes Dubien. “In fact, the update query won fear of the unknown that is associated with the Macron, he says. And this request was undervalued”.

Of the 11 candidates in the second round were the youngest member of the elections and the third age: the Makron now 39, and Le Pen 48. In addition, the first 60 years of existence of the Fifth Republic elections where the second round not nobody came from the traditional right – and left-centrist forces. Interviewed experts believe in the final victory of Macron. However, both remaining candidates for President may have problems in cooperation with the legislature if elected.

Quilt

A month after the second round of presidential elections in France, elections to the Parliament (11 and 18 June), all 577 deputies who are elected in single-mandate constituencies. Current public opinion polls on the parliamentary election has not yet taken place. The most recent assessment submitted in June 2016 pollsters OpinionWay. According to their calculations, the left bloc headed by the socialists will lose most, skipping ahead of the center-right block headed by “Republicans”. The front national will be able to increase its presence in the Assembly from the current two to about 60 members. The report has not studied the prospects of the party Rules “Forward”, which was then just formed.

Whoever becomes President of France, he most likely will not be able to rely on full-fledged parliamentary majority, warns Dubien from “Observe”: “Even if most reach — for example, if the Makron will win, then will be able to attract the left and to split the center-right, it will be patchy and therefore unstable”. In General, according to experts, French politics is now moving from traditional dvuhvekovoy models of the right and left centers to chetyrehluchevoy: left, right, center-right and extreme right.

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