According to interviewed experts, this month, a serious impact on the exchange rate of the ruble to the Euro can have an outcome of US Federal reserve meeting, which will take place March 15. This event emphasized eight out of ten respondents financiers. However, experts cannot say what the decision of the American regulator. “If the statistics on the US economy will show growth, we can expect an increase in interest rates and, as a consequence, depreciation of the Euro,” said analyst Exante Anton Iospa. But even if the rate is not increased, most likely, will be given signals about its increase at the next meeting, suggests the expert of the Financial group BCS Ivan Kopeikin. This, in his opinion, may have a greater negative impact on the ruble than the Euro.
Six out of ten of the surveyed analysts also believe that the important event of the month will be the meeting of the Russian regulator, which is scheduled for March 24. According to Ivan Kopeikin, it is likely that the Central Bank will reduce the key rate, which can put pressure on the ruble against the dollar and the Euro. Some experts, however, believe that the regulator will continue to conduct tight monetary policy, but indicate the possibility that the Central Bank will hint at further easing. If such statements sound, the ruble may weaken, suggests chief economist, Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik.
From the European regulator, the meeting will be held on March 9, financiers drastic action is expected. “Eurozone GDP will continue to decline, says the head of operations on the Russian stock market IR “freedom Finance” George Vashchenko. — Believe that the ECB will not go in these conditions for a rate hike”. However important may be the rhetoric associated with the possibility of a quick end to stimulate the economy of the EU monetary ways. It maybe a little to support the Euro and weaken the ruble.
Taking into account these and other factors, the survey participants assume that the closure of the stock exchange on the last day of the month, March 31, the Euro is a little stronger. The consensus forecast of RUB 62,4 Month ago financiers predicted 65 rubles for euros and made a mistake: on February 28 at the close of trading at 19:00 MSK it was worth 61,7 RUB.