This week a key influence on the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble will have a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank, which will be held on Friday, March 24, say eight out of ten of the experts interviewed . Analysts have not yet agreed what the decision of the regulator on the value of the key rate and future monetary policy.
“There’s a pretty high probability that the Central Bank will reduce the key rate, which can put pressure on the ruble,” — said the expert of the financial group BCS Ivan Kopeikin. In turn, the Junior group analyst research and forecasting ACRES Vasilisa Baranov is convinced that this Friday the Bank of Russia will keep rates at the current level. However, the ruble this week will still be weakened due to uncertainty on the currency market related to the outcome of the coming meeting of the Central Bank, emphasizes the expert.
The second important factor that can weaken the ruble, is news from the oil market. First of all, experts remind about publishing fresh data on stocks of oil and oil products in the US this Wednesday. “The growth of reserves and production of crude oil could adversely affect its value and, therefore, the Russian currency,” — says Ivan Kopeikin. However, last week the volume of reserves dropped for the first time since December last year. If the trend of reduction continues, the ruble, by contrast, can get stronger.
According to General Director UK “Sputnik — capital Management” Alexander Losev, the oil market could also impact working group meeting of representatives of OPEC countries, which will discuss the possibility of extending the freeze of oil production at current levels for another six months. This meeting is scheduled for 25-26 March in the run-up in the oil futures market could increase the volatility, which is able to adjust the dynamics of the ruble.
Taking into account these and other factors, the survey respondents suggest that by the close of trading on the Moscow stock exchange on Friday, March 24, the dollar will rise to 58.4 RUB last week experts predicted 59.9 per rubles per dollar and was wrong: March 17, at the close of trading at 19:00 GMT the U.S. currency was worth RUB 57,6