Moscow. April 27. The exchange rate will gradually approach the equilibrium value as the decisions of the Central Bank to reduce the key rate, according to experts, it deviates from this value, and would have to be about 60 rubles to the dollar, told reporters Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, commenting on the question whether the government and the Central Bank to take action weakening of the ruble exchange rate to support exporters.
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“For different companies in different ways (affected by the strengthening of the ruble), of course, one export – is the main direction of the work, the course is set. I must say that it is the experts, the equilibrium exchange rate should be somewhat different, closer to 60. In any case, different from the present needs” – he said
“Do I have to do something? I think that the Central Bank and the economic block of the government on these issues. Second, the situation will be corrected, I think, as the Central Bank will make decisions on reduction of the key rate,” – said Dvorkovich, expressing the view that the exchange rate will come to equilibrium gradually by reducing the key rate”.
President Vladimir Putin on 25 April in Rybinsk during the meeting with representatives of business circles of the Yaroslavl region said that the authorities are looking for options for market-based measures of influence on the ruble exchange rate and will try to address the concerns of exporters on the issue of strengthening the national currency. “What is important is not the exchange rate, although we understand that this is a sensitive area and important to the stability of the currency under a floating exchange rate – and from there we are going to give up” he said, noting that if to regulate the rate of non-market means, there will be too many risks.
“As far as the Central Bank and the government will be able to provide this stability, we’ll see. But we understand that this is one of the key problems, and believe me, doing this is almost – I say without exaggeration, on a daily basis,” said Putin, commenting on the fears of exporters.
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He understood the concerns of exporters by strengthening of the ruble. The head of state said that the authorities are looking for options for market-based measures of influence on relevant processes. The head of the Ministry Maxim Oreshkin last week in Krasnoyarsk expressed the view that the balance of payments of the Russian Federation significantly reduced in the II-III quarters that will lead to the weakening of the ruble.
“Was a seasonal strong balance of payments, was capital inflow in the first quarter. This led to the deviations. What we expect – the second-the third quarter – the balance of payments will be significantly worse, and the ruble is a natural way to be adjusted,” said Oreshkin about their expectations of the dynamics of the exchange rate.
He recalled that the Ministry laid down in the basic variant of the forecast weakening of the national currency by the end of 2017 to 68 rubles to the dollar by reducing the price of oil to $40 per barrel. If oil prices remain at the current level, in the opinion of the Minister, the dollar at the end of the year will cost 62-63 of the ruble. The government for several months trying to justify the idea that the ruble is strongly perekrestimsya relative to its equilibrium value. So, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in mid-March stated that, according to the Finance Ministry, the ruble periorale 10-12% from fundamental values.
The position of the Central Bank more cautious – the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina at the end of March said that the concept of fundamental exchange rate is very conditional, and the model of the Central Bank show the least deviation from it, than the estimates of the Ministry of Finance.
“Concerning the fundamental values of the course, indeed, many use this concept. We used to speak on this subject. But here must be treated very carefully to this concept. In my opinion, it is very conditional. We have inside the Bank there are different models on which to assess this fundamental course. I can say that the deviation now, we estimate much less than the Ministry of Finance (MOF believes that the ruble periorale 10-12% to the fundamental value). Different models give much less deviation,” – said the head of the Central Bank.