The may revaluation: how will the Euro after elections in France

According to eight out of ten respondents financiers, this month the dynamics of the Euro will depend mainly on the results of the presidential elections in France, the second round which will take place on 7 may. For the presidency will compete centrist Emmanuel macron and the head of “National front” marine Le Pen. “Le Pen advocates the withdrawal of France from the EU, the macron against it,” says an analyst at Absolut Bank Egor Musatov. While the ratings indicate that the candidate of the centrist more chances to win in the presidential race. According to the survey, conducted April 26-27, 59% of respondents support the nomination of Macron, whereas for Le Pen ready to vote 41% of voters, reports Reuters.

“The victory of Makron is able to strengthen the Euro,” said analyst EXANTE Anton Iospa. However, the unexpected victory of Le Pen experts also do not exclude. “If the winner is not Pro-European candidate, then the Euro could come under significant pressure,” — says the expert of the financial group BCS Ivan Kopeikin. According to estimates of the Director of the center for macroeconomic forecasting of the Bank Natalia Shilova, the unexpected victory of Le Pen, the European currency can show a sharp weakening by 5-7%.

The second significant factor, which drew the attention of seven of the ten interviewed experts, a meeting of the US Federal reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, may 3. Financial experts believe that this time the fed will keep interest rates unchanged. However, according to the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lisovolik, the fed could toughen rhetoric on monetary policy. “This may be an additional factor in the weakening of the Euro against the dollar,” — says the financier.

Taking into account these and other factors, the survey participants assume that the closure of the stock exchange on the last business day of the month, may 31, the Euro is a little stronger. The consensus 62,7 RUB for Euro. A month ago, financiers predicted the Euro at 61 rubles for euros and made a mistake: April 28 at the close of trading at 19:00 MSK it was worth 62,1 RUB.