Moscow. May 4. INTERFAX.RU – Inflation in Russia from April 25 to may 2 was 0.1%, said on Thursday Rosstat. The previous week the prices unexpectedly accelerated to 0.2% (the maximum value since the beginning of January) on the background of rise in price of vegetables. Before three weeks, prices rose 0.1%.
Since the beginning of month inflation to may 2 was 0% since the beginning of the year to 1.4%. Rosstat on Friday will publish data on inflation in April. On the basis of a weekly change, inflation in April can be estimated at about 0.4 percent, which would mean that the annual inflation rate remained at the March level of 4.3%.
As reported in March 2017 amid strengthening of the ruble at the beginning of the year inflation in Russia amounted to a minimum of 0.1% for that month in the entire history of observations since 1991. In annual terms the inflation rate in March decreased to 4.3% from 4.6% in February to 5.0% in January and 5.4% in December.
The average increase in prices for the 2 day of may was 0.02% (but in such a short period data is not entirely representative) against 0,004% in March and 0,013% in may 2016 (in April 2017 Rosstat has not yet led statistics).
Over the past week, prices of lamb, pork, margarine, milk, bread rose by 0.2-0.3%.
The increase in fruit and vegetable prices remained at a high level and on average was 2.3%, including on cabbage – 13,5%, onion – by 8.8%, potatoes – 7,5%, carrots – 5.8 percent. At the same time cucumbers fell by 4.6%.
At the same time the eggs became cheaper by 2.5%, chicken oil, sunflower oil, buckwheat, sugar and candies – 0.2-1,0%.
Prices for gasoline rose for the week by 0.2%, on diesel fuel – have not changed.
As reported, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia on the 28th of April decided to reduce the key rate by 50 b.p. – from 9.75% to 9.25%.
While the Central Bank was removed from the statement of the signal on the temporary benchmark for further easing. In March, lowering the rate by 25 b.p. Central Bank wrote that it “allows for the possibility of gradual reduction of the key rate in the II-III quarters of this year.”
In the new statement as a signal performs a phrase – “assessment by the Bank of Russia total possible scale reduction of the key rate until the end of 2017 has not changed.” While the Bank did not give public estimates of the level of rates at year-end. The consensus forecast of analysts introduces a reduced rate of 8.5% (150 basis points per year).
The new forecast of Ministry of economic development on inflation in 2017 is 3.8%. The consensus forecast of “Interfax”, prepared by results of poll of economists in late April – early may, growth in the current year at 4.1%.