UN, may 17. /Offset. TASS Oleg Zelenin/. UN experts have improved its forecast for the development of Russia’s economy and expect by the end of 2017 the country’s GDP growth by 1.5%. This is stated in a statement released on Tuesday an updated version of the report “world Economic situation and prospects”, prepared by the Department of economic and social Affairs (DESA).
In January the economists of the world organization predicted percent growth in GDP this year and 1.5% in 2018 In the Tuesday report, the forecast for next year remained unchanged. In addition, DESA reviewed the assessment of the outcome of 2016: according to new calculations, the fall in GDP amounted to 0.8% and 0.2%. As before, the report, Russia is considered as “countries in transition”.
Minor changes were made to the forecast of the UN experts on the economy of the CIS countries and Georgia. According to the report, this year, their combined GDP will grow by 1.7%, and in 2018 by 1.9%. Five months ago in DESA predicted growth of 1.4% and 1.8% in the current year and next year, respectively.
The Russian economy has adapted to the sanctions
Commenting at the request of TASS, the consequences of the sanctions imposed against Russia, the representative of DESA dawn Holland said that they had been effectively addressed and for some time held back the recovery of the Russian economy. “This year we see the improvement of the economy and one of the factors which drives this, is the change in the structure of production, in part responding to sanctions, import substitution. It was quite successful in some sectors of the economy and became one of the factors that influenced our forecast. So the effect of the sanctions is, but they act for a long time, and the economy began to grow in these conditions, adapting to them,” she said.
In conversation with TASS, the UN experts noted that the import substitution program proved its efficiency in several sectors of the economy, including in agriculture, food sector, wood processing and chemical industry.
The improvement of the economy of the Russian Federation also contributed to the increase in oil prices, proceeds from the sale which will allow you to replenish the reserves of the country. In addition, the experts draw attention to the reduction of inflation in Russia due to the policy of the Central Bank and weak aggregate demand, which was observed in 2016, According to economists, a possible decline in interest rates is another factor that will boost investment, while the strengthening of the ruble may have a negative impact on the export of goods from Russia.
Global forecast unchanged
DESA forecast for other countries and regions has remained almost unchanged compared with the previous version of the report. At the end of this year, the UN experts expect a 1.8% GDP growth and a 1.7 percent increase in gross domestic product of the European Union. Strong growth continues in developing Asia, including in India (7.3 per cent) and China (6.5 per cent). The decline of the main economic indicator will change to almost zero growth in Brazil, while the combined GDP of Latin America and the Caribbean will increase by 1.1%.
Economists expect the UN global GDP in 2017 will grow at 2.7% and next year by 2.8%. In this regard, the DESA forecast has not changed compared to the January report.