CBR in June will increase the base forecast on oil prices

Moscow. June 5. INTERFAX.RU – the CBR in mid-June, will increase the basic forecast for the price of oil, but a scenario with rising prices is unlikely to be a major, Chairman Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina to journalists in the state Duma.

“On 16 June we will publish our updated forecast estimates. We did say that we will revise the forecast, and one of the reasons for revising the determination of the fate of the agreement of OPEC. We see that the OPEC agreement was extended, and this supports the price of oil, therefore, with high probability we will increase estimates of oil prices in the baseline forecast. To what level, we will declare and calculate to the 16 of June and will do the same forecasts on the future price of oil”, – said the head of the Central Bank.

However, there are a number of factors constraining the dynamics of oil prices, it is unlikely for the main will take the forecast with rising prices (to$46 per barrel). The base is now forecast price of $40 per barrel.

“The main scenario is unlikely to be the scenario with the ever increasing oil prices. We see such trends in the oil market, quickly growing production, oil production in America, including shale oil, it has a chilling effect on the dynamics of oil prices”, – said Nabiullina.

Regular meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia key rate will be held June 16. The meeting will be the reference, that is, its results will be a press conference of the Chairman of the Central Bank and a report will be published on monetary policy (DCT).

At the end of the previous reference of the meeting of the Board of Directors in March raised the forecast average oil prices for 2017 – from $40 per barrel to $50 per barrel. “The Bank of Russia presupposes the preservation of the price of Urals crude oil in close proximity to their current values (around $50 per barrel) in the first half of 2017, followed by a gradual decrease to about $40 per barrel in the fourth quarter and maintaining close to that level in 2018-2019 years”, – noted in the March report for the OST. Then, the Central Bank lowered the key rate by 0.25 percentage points (PP) – to 9.50% at the end of the session in April (it was not a reference) rate was reduced even by 0.50 percentage points to 9.25%.

The main directions of unified state monetary policy, the price of oil in the baseline scenario lies in the amount of $40 per barrel, in the pessimistic – $25 per barrel, optimistic – $46 per barrel.