Moscow. June 4. INTERFAX.RU the world Bank (WB) expects a strengthening in global growth from 2.4% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017, 2018 and 2019, to 2.9 percent due to the recovery of industry and trade, improve market confidence and stabilize commodity prices, says review of world Bank “Global economic prospects” (Global Economic Prospects, GEP).
Predictions coincide with the January estimates by the world Bank.
The global review also reflected the may forecasts of the world Bank for the Russian economy, suggesting a rise by 1.3% this year and 1.4% in 2018 and 2019.
This year, GDP growth in developed countries is expected to be 1.9% (January forecast of 1.8%) in developing countries and emerging market economies was 4.1% (January forecast is 4.2%). In 2018 the growth rate will be respectively of 1.8% and 4.5%, predicts the world Bank.
“However, significant downside risks weigh on the Outlook. New trade restrictions could derail the long-awaited recovery of global trade. The intrinsic uncertainty in policy and regulation can impair confidence and limit investment, – noted in the review. – In the long term weakness of labor productivity and investment growth can undermine long-term growth prospects of developing countries, which are essential for poverty reduction.”
The world Bank lowered growth forecast for the US economy by 2017 from 2.2% to 2.1%, increased the evaluation for 2018, down from 2.1% to 2.2% and kept unchanged expectations for the year 2019 – 1.9 percent.
Growth forecast of the Eurozone economy for the current year was increased by 0.2 percentage points (PP) to 1.7%, following two years by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5%.
WB has dramatically improved the assessment of growth in Japan’s GDP for this year to 1.5% from 0.9% in 2018 – up to 1% from 0.8% in 2019 up to 0.6% from 0.4%.
“Because the actual growth in developed countries continues to exceed capacity, strengthening of inflation and the reduction of excess capacity increase the probability of a transition to a less accommodative monetary policy,” according to the WB.
The forecasts of increase of the Chinese GDP for this year unchanged at 6.5 percent for the next two years – 6.3% per year.
In General, in comparison with January the world Bank is less optimistic about the commodity exporters – the forecast of growth of GDP worsened from 0.5 PP, to 1.8%.
The world Bank hopes to increase world trade by 4% this year after increasing 2.5 percent from a year earlier, and then by 3.8% per year in 2018 and 2019.
Oil, according to WB estimates, in 2017 could grow by 23.8%, in 2018 5.7% 2019 5.4%. Price index commodity non energy, will probably rise by 4% this year, 0.7% in 2018 and 1% in 2019.