Moscow. June 6. INTERFAX.RU – the consequences of a cold spring can lead to a temporary acceleration of inflation from the supply side in the coming months, another factor of inflationary pressure until the end of this year will be the revival of demand, according to a Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation “as evidenced by trends”.
“Against this background, there remain risks from the point of view of maintaining inflation close to the target level in the medium term”, – stated in the document.
The rise in consumer prices in may, adjusted for seasonality, according to preliminary data, will again be slightly above the inflation target of 4%. In April, the seasonally adjusted inflation in yoy also exceeded the target of the Central Bank due to temporary displacement of seasonality in food prices.
However, the Department notes that inflation approached the target level on the background of favorable external economic and financial conditions, as well as the result of a moderately tight monetary policy. Put the economy on a trajectory of slow but steady growth, analysts say. “The current balance of risks speak in favour of a gradual easing of monetary policy,” reads the Bulletin.
Analysts of Bank believe that such temporary favorable factors of the slowdown in inflation as the effects of the strengthening of the ruble in January-April 2017, can continue its action until at least mid year. Inflation expectations and financial analysts continue to decline, creating more favourable conditions for achieving the target levels for inflation.
“In the second half may see an increase of inflationary pressure due to cold spring weather and the improvement in the economic situation. The revival of demand allows manufacturers to a greater extent to transfer the rising costs to consumer prices. Realization of these risks is unlikely to impede the achievement of the inflation target in 2017. However, the possible increase in inflationary pressure in the second half of the year may increase the risks for keeping inflation close to target in the medium term,” the experts stress.
The acceleration is seasonally adjusted growth rate of prices due to cold weather and reduce harvest of fruits and vegetables can occur in the third quarter of 2017, adds the Department of the Central Bank.