Neighbors against renovation
Almost two thirds of Muscovites living near the homes that will be demolished under the program of renovation, would not want to join the program. These are the results of a study conducted by the Levada center commissioned by RBC. Residents of the houses located next door to the demolished five-story building, asked whether they support the inclusion of their homes in the program. 64,5% of those who agreed to answer and said that they do not support, is still 35.5 percent would like to have their house included in the program.
Studies of the attitudes of Muscovites living in the neighbourhood from demolished houses before that were not published. In April VTSIOM interviewed residents included in the program of five-story buildings, and 80% supported the renovation. In may released a survey of residents of the anticipated areas of renovation — 74% of them expressed a desire to participate in the program. In June it was announced that 67% of Muscovites generally support the renovation.
A survey by the Levada centre conducted in June 2017 among 1 thousand people aged 18 years and older, living in Moscow. The survey included only respondents who are owners (legal representatives of minors owners) or tenants under a social lease contract. For research purposes the sample was divided into two parts: 500 residents, previously included in the program of renovation and 500 residents of neighboring houses not included in the program of renovation (as of June 1, 2017). Door-to-door survey was conducted using personal interviews among residents of the 50 cities with the largest number of houses proposed by the mayor’s office to vote on the question of renovation. In each district surveyed residents of two houses: the pre-included in the renovation programme and is located nearby. Addresses of the homes included in the renovation programme were selected randomly.
For the demolition have already voted 4161 house, another 1.5 thousand held a General meeting of owners, which also called for the renovation. Thus, the program can log 5.5 thousand houses. However, it will affect thousands of houses nearby, according to experts. These houses will not be less than demolition, says the Professor of the Moscow architectural Institute Alexey Krasheninnikov. The renovation programme may be subject to half the city, the Director of the Institute for regional studies and urban planning HSE Irina ilina. “These buildings will definitely be more than 10 thousand five-story Building located almost all over the city, in established areas,” explained Ilyin. Only in the capital of 40 thousand apartment houses. The house will be demolished in 82 districts, a total population of approximately 8.3 million people, estimated RBC, or two-thirds of the official number of inhabitants of the city.
Construction scares everyone
The main problems of renovation of the neighbouring properties consider large-scale construction, which will unfold under the program (34%), poor quality of new homes (26%) and the forced resettlement of Muscovites of the most prestigious areas on the outskirts (23%). Opponents of the renovation of the first note of the poor quality of new homes and the expulsion of the Muscovites, these options were chosen by 34% of respondents. The noise, dirt and other consequences of construction often called the problem of renovation of all respondents of the Levada center (31%) of residents and Khrushchev, and the neighboring houses. Another 24% predict traffic problems, including a lack of Parking.
The question, in whose interest is the program of renovation, the inhabitants of the rock-steady homes are often called developers — this option is selected 49% of the respondents. Vice-mayor Marat Khusnullin said in may that Moscow “does not see” developers in the program, however, Minister of construction of Russia Mikhail Men said that private developers will participate. According to RBC, for renovation, in particular, can connect the PIK group. A considerable percentage of neighbors of the buildings (41%) believe the primary beneficiaries of the renovation of the Moscow authorities. While 44% of people rock-steady houses still believe that the program will be implemented in the interests of immigrants. So that renovation in the interests of all Muscovites agree only 9%.
Among all respondents — the inhabitants of both Khrushchev and rock-steady of the neighboring houses — the most popular was the opinion that the renovation will take place in the interests of the residents of the five-story building. So believe half of the respondents. While 47% believe that it is in the interests of developers. 37% of respondents believe the beneficiaries of government; only 11% believe that the program will be conducted in interests of all Muscovites.
“A nearby house more modern, high-rise, so their inhabitants are more often satisfied with their living conditions”, — explained RBC a sociologist at the Levada center, the difference in attitude towards the renovation of the residents of the five-story building and neighboring houses.
To live near the five-story building is more comfortable than next to the houses that will be built instead of Khrushchev, says a leading expert on housing law and housing movement “For human rights” Viktor Fedoruk. New homes will be higher, population of the district will increase the green areas will be reduced. Therefore, the majority of neighbors are opposed to renovation. “People don’t want to change their way of life due to neighboring houses and feel uncomfortable at the expense of others”, — explained RBC Fedoruk. Some people rock-steady houses tried to achieve the right to vote on the demolition of five-story building, because I didn’t want to see their district in five to ten years turned into a construction site, told RBC member of the Moscow bar Association Artur Airapetov.
Khrushchev believe the authorities
The opinion of the residents of the houses that will participate in the renovation, very different from the point of view of their neighbors. 85.5% of residents of houses belonging to the preliminary list of renovation, voted for the demolition, according to a study by the Levada center. The main reason is the desire to move to more comfortable housing. Most voted for the demolition (70%) said that their home is in disrepair and when you move they will improve their living conditions. More than half of supporters of the move (52%) refer to the fact that the house is structurally out of date, there are no elevators, balconies and garbage disposal. In addition, 46% of supporters of the demolition of hope to get a bigger flat. Only 30% of the population of the five-story building, voted for the move, appreciated the quality of the repairs in the apartment as “good” and “very good”.
Among the residents of Khrushchev, who voted against demolition, and are 14.5%, on the contrary, the most satisfied with the repairs in the apartment (71.2 percent). In General, opponents of the renovation are satisfied with their living conditions, and they don’t want to change — this was stated by 71% of respondents. The condition of the house 54% of those who voted against the demolition believe “good” and “very good”. The average area of housing the opponents of the renovation of 54 square meters, while the supporters of the settlement — 44 sq. m. Minimum area the opponents of the renovation of 26 square meters, the supporters — 9 sq. m. the Period of residence in Moscow and a car does not affect the choice of the inhabitants.
The survey showed that 59% voted against demolition of his house for fear that they will be relocated to another area, and 48% are afraid to move into their district, but further away from transport infrastructure and social facilities. By the way, the fear of relocation to another area is noted in one third (33%) of all residents of the five-story building, and almost every fourth (23%) fear to move within their area to the place with the worst infrastructure.
“In principle, a fixed high-trust authorities and information about the program that you are distributing to the population in which they say that “will be better” — said a sociologist at the Levada center Stepan Goncharov. He stressed that one of the main sources of news about program — TV. “Protest” vote among residents of the five-story building is primarily connected with distrust to the authorities: the renovation opponents believe that the program is only in the interests of developers and benefit from it only a small part of the population, explained Goncharov.
Of course, increasing the comfort of living is the main motive to change their living conditions, says the Director of the direction “municipal economy” Institute of a city economy Vladilen Prokofiev. It is as a residential area and about the local area. People who spent money on repair of apartments, of course, less willing to move. “If a person is comfortable to live in his house, he will never vote for demolition,” — said Prokofiev. According to the survey, most of the residents of the buildings suggest that the city will solve their housing problems, said Prokofiev. The expert believes that the city authorities in advance carried out some sociological studies before taking the decision about the renovation. As explained Sergei Sobyanin, in the voting list included the five-story building in poor condition, of them conducted a telephone survey, and the majority of residents expressed a desire to participate in the renovation.
42% for a new term Sobyanin
Thanks to the program of renovation of Muscovites began to better relate to Russian President Vladimir Putin, it follows from the results of the study by the Levada center. 23% of all respondents said that their opinion of Putin had improved because of his position on the program.
The mayor has publicly agreed on a programme of renovation with the head of state at a meeting on 21 February. The mayor said that the city of 25 million square metres of “uncomfortable”, dilapidated housing, which in 10-20 years will be a disaster. The President replied that the Muscovites are looking forward to when these homes are demolished, new housing will be built, and it “seems to be the most correct decision.” However, the government’s decision has caused protest on the part of Muscovites, who felt that the announced renovation violates their rights to private property and threatens relocation to cheaper housing and remote areas. Putin said that he would not sign the law on the renovation, if it will violate the rights of Muscovites. 14 may to rally against the renovation of the Avenue Sakharov came to 30 thousand of Muscovites. In the end, as found RBC, the Kremlin has decided to publicly distance themselves from the renovation.
While 44% of respondents have not changed the relationship to the President because of the renovation program, 5% of respondents changed him for the worse. A fifth of Muscovites (21%) do not know how Putin refers to the demolition of Khrushchev.
Sobyanin would like to see the next mayor of Moscow, 42% of the residents of the buildings and their neighbors, but a large number of those who wish his place was taken by another — of those 30% (and this is slightly more than Alexey Navalny won the election of the mayor of Moscow in 2013 to 27.2%). Another 28% of respondents were unable to answer, whom they would like to see the next mayor of the capital.
The survey was conducted among residents of the five-story building and neighboring houses, and this sample may differ in their electoral systems from srednemoskovskaya indicators noted potters from the Levada center.
The re-election of the current mayor’s support 52% of supporters of the renovation in the Khrushchev, and rock-steady homes. Opponents of the demolition are mostly dissatisfied with the current mayor, only 24% are ready to vote for him in 2018. In the last election the current supporters and opponents of the renovation have voted differently — for Sobyanin was 37% supporting demolition, and 26% do not support. For Bulk voted 2-3% of respondents, regardless of their relationship to the renovation. “You should pay attention to the high percentage of refusals to answer the question about the participation in elections of the mayor is 18-19%, and 4-6% refused to say for whom they voted. It is possible that some supporters of Navalny did not want to answer the question, but the reasons may be different: from the distrust of the interviewer in the context of a survey about the renovation of the disappointment in his leader after a massive campaign against an opposition politician,” — said Goncharov.
Ready for protests
Levada center also analyzed the preferences affected by the renovation programme of Muscovites in respect of parliamentary elections of 2016. The proportion of voters “an United Russia” among the residents of Khrushchev, who voted for the demolition of their homes, three times more than among those who voted against the renovation, and 27 vs 9%. The last five times more often voted for the Communist party — 19 vs 4% supported the demolition.
In the rally against the renovation involved 14% of the residents of Khrushchev, who voted against the demolition, and 2% of the inhabitants of the neighboring houses, not wishing to enter the program. One-third voted against the demolition (34%) are willing to participate in future protests. 39% are ready to protest against the renovation are over the age of 55 years. In rallies in support of the demolition was attended by 1% of respondents. “The opposition of the opponents of the renovation means more support system of opposition, not radical,” said Goncharov.
The renovation was not so much the cause, as the reason for the protests in Moscow, Muscovites split on the issue of trust in city government, and the attitude towards renovation is one of the manifestations of this split, the President of Fund “the Petersburg policy” Michael Vinogradov. Those who trust the government, better apply to the renovation. “They have a lower presumption of suspicion” — said the scientist in a conversation with RBC.
The involvement of Vladimir Putin to the renovation programme has not brought him no advantages, no disadvantages; rather, they are strengthened in their attitude, I’m sure Vinogradov. “To say that the renovation program has some success story prematurely. Mechanical transfer of programs to other regions of the question, not only because of the obvious financial aspect, but also because such topics fix the split in society”, — concluded the analyst.