MOSCOW, August 16. /TASS/. International rating Agency Fitch will maintain the sovereign credit rating of Russia to investment level “BBB-” with “positive” Outlook on August 17, experts polled by TASS.
In their view, the Russian monetary and fiscal policy is balanced, and the macro-economy remains stable and now does not indicate the reasons for the rating revision. While Fitch’s decision will be announced at the 20th anniversary of the technical default of Russia on major types of government debt totaling about $72.7 billion Experts unanimously convinced that in Russia today can not be a repetition of the crisis similar in scale to the collapse of the economy in 1998.
Investment rating, positive Outlook
“I think that the rating will remain the same, I don’t think Fitch will lower the rating. Still, it’s a sovereign debt rating of the Russian Federation, and maintenance issues no debt, a reasonably balanced budget policy, monetary policy is also clear. And the fact that the ruble is falling, the ruble is not one falls – are a big sell-off in all emerging markets on the backdrop of the ongoing us-China, us-Turkish relations. Therefore, the sanctions, of course, also add to the pressure, but the main is the overall global situation. Therefore, if only on the basis of recent movements of the rouble lower the rating, then it is necessary to reduce the rating of most developing countries that are unlikely to do. I think Fitch will not change the rating either to one or to the other side,” says chief economist at FG BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov.
A crisis of the magnitude seen in 1998 now, of course you won’t, because 20 years ago the collapse of the economy was largely a crisis of unsettled institutions, absolutely bad decisions and lack of experience, said Romanchuk. “Now in Russia for all the shortcomings of social institutions related to law enforcement, the judicial system, as regards the financial markets, our Institute built the world’s best standards, monetary policy is a budget surplus, for it is very strictly monitored,” says Romanchuk.
In his opinion, monetary policy in Russia can be quite strict and to some extent inhibits economic growth, but by crises, even when large shocks are sufficiently protected Russia. “Events that we held in 2008 and 2014, show that despite the fact that the challenges were significant, such a disaster in 1998, financial markets did not happen. The monetary authorities have learned to cope with these external shocks better than it was before, and every time better and better. So overall I think that in the near future is unlikely, it is possible that comparable to 1998,” said Romanchuk.
From June to December 2014 the Russian currency has fallen against the dollar by 2.2 times. In late 2014 – early 2015, the Bank of Russia significantly increased the provision of liquidity to the banking sector. According to the Bank, on 11 December 2014, the amount of funds issued to banks on REPO operations rose to about 3.8 trillion RUB.
The main pressure on Russian stocks and the rouble in August had concerns about the introduction of new U.S. sanctions. Against this background, since the beginning of August to the maximum auction August 13, at the level 68,66 RUB the dollar jumped almost 10%. The fall of the ruble against the Euro over the same period was less significant and amounted to 6.8%.
In particular, last week it became known that the U.S. administration from August 22 imposes sanctions against Russia due to attributed to her involvement in the poisoning March 4, ex-GRU Colonel Sergei Skripal and his daughter Julia in Salisbury. As noted earlier, state Department spokesman, after 90 days, us authorities will make a decision about the introduction of a second package of sanctions against Moscow, depending on whether it is a number put forward her conditions. Russia has repeatedly denied allegations of his involvement in the incident with Kripalani.
According to experts, Fitch may somehow comment on the potential impact of new sanctions in the notification of the rating of the Russian Federation on 17 August, however, the Russian rating Agency of the creditworthiness or credit rating debt current Russian sanction fears will not be affected.
“Do not expect changes. Recently there was a revision of the rating by S&P, in which the rating of the Russian Federation was confirmed at the same level, but in the release it was stated that if the tightening of sanctions, the Agency may review the rating. Most likely, something like that Fitch will include in his message” – analyst, senior Vice President of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai.
In July the international rating Agency S&P confirmed long-term credit rating of Russia in foreign currency at the investment level “BBB-” with “stable” Outlook, noting that Russian economic growth will likely be supported by ongoing global economic recovery and domestic demand will recover including due to the improvement in Bank lending and announced the acceleration of public investment.
Earlier in mass media there was spread information that in the bill of the American Congress about new sanctions against the Russian Federation provides for “tougher sanctions against energy and financial sectors of Russia”, its “oligarchs and state-owned enterprises”, the application of the “sanctions against the Russian sovereign debt”. However, if sanctions are imposed against Russian government debt, in fact the Americans will punish its holders of debt of the Russian Federation, because they will be forced to sell securities, says Tikhomirov.
“Accordingly, for some period of time prices will fall due to these sales, but it will give a good reason for the Central Bank to reverse the purchase of debt at a good price, and the loss ultimately will be borne by foreign holders,” – he said.
In April, the US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated that it opposed the spread of American sanctions on the state debt of the Russian Federation. Then Mnuchin indicated that the U.S. Treasury more cautious in the process of introduction of restrictions against Russia.