The only Russian sub-sector of the services sector, which increased demand in the past quarter, was pawn shops, to the monitoring center for market research HSE on the business climate in the service sector. Lombard industry happy, but for the economy as a whole is a disturbing symptom: pawn shops — a sure indicator of a crisis of sentiment.
The demand for the services of pawnshops has increased for the third consecutive quarter, and similar dynamics since the beginning of the year can boast except that a sanatorium-and-Spa institutions from the HSE, based on the opinions of entrepreneurs. The demand for the remaining 12 services, HSE inspected, including insurance, communications, advertising and real estate services in the third quarter declined, and the service industry in General moves in a “recessionary trajectory”.
As believed
HSE calculates a quarterly index of business confidence in the services sector, it is based on a survey of over 5600 entrepreneurs in 14 activities (conducts polls Rosstat). The respondents estimate the change of a number of indicators — reported that they had improved or worsened (decreased or increased). Then for each of the indicators is calculated, the balance of assessments is the difference (in percentage) between the share of respondents who noted a deterioration or improvement of the parameter. The resulting index of business confidence is obtained as the arithmetic average balances of assessments of three metrics — changes in demand for services, the economic situation of organisations in the current quarter compared to the previous one and expected changes in demand for services in the next quarter.
For pawnshops component of “change in demand relative to the previous quarter,” amounted to plus 4% (the same as in the second quarter). For sanatorium-and-Spa institutions — plus 1% (compared to 10% in the second quarter). For other services the figure is negative, that is, the majority of respondents said demand for their services in the third quarter decreased. “Pawn shops demonstrate enviable stability — the demand for their services grows […], now this kind of activity can be called a leader in the sphere of services”, — says the Director of the center for business research George ostapkovich.
The composite index of business confidence in the services sector in the third quarter declined 1 percentage points to evaluate at minus 6% and remains negative for the fifth quarter in a row. The most pessimistic moods are observed at the enterprises of technical maintenance and repair of motor vehicles, travel, dental, advertising and real estate firms — everywhere minus 10% and below.
But for pawnshops, insurance companies, and Spa facilities the index was in positive territory at 3.2 and 4%, respectively. In the insurance business climate has deteriorated dramatically compared to 2012-2014 years when it was consistently in the lead in terms of business confidence. “Managers of insurance companies, which a year ago gave a positive assessment of the current dynamics and prospects of development of business regardless of market conditions, gradually lost all his optimism. Remain afloat sanatorium-resort establishments and pawn shops,” writes Ostapkovich in the review.
Spas and resorts use “the collapse of international tourism”. And Lombards, paradoxically, benefit from the reduction of incomes of the population. This is a typical situation in times of crisis, Ostapkovich explained : “falling real disposable income, and people are forced to go to pawn shops” — pawn “noncritical” their property.
An increase of 100%
The Lombard market this year growing at a rapid pace, confirms President of the National Association of pawnshops Alexey Lazutin. According to him, in the first quarter of this year growth exceeded 30%, and the loan portfolio of pawnshops increased from 27 billion to 35 billion rubles (the exact statistics on the second and third quarters yet). For comparison Lazutin gives figures for the whole of 2014, when the market grew by 12% (from 24 billion to 27 billion rubles). Thus, he notes, the growth momentum of the greater part of players is limited only to the “funding opportunities” individual pawnshops or networks, increased regulatory burden and higher costs for documentary support of the business (submission of reports to the Central Bank).
The main sources of growth of the pawn market Lazutin considers two factors. The first is the increase of the ruble value of gold by almost 53% over the year. So now loan that you can get for one gram of gold has increased by more than half. While gold accounts for more than 90% of all mortgages. The second factor is the reduction of retail Bank lending. The reduction of this market for the year could reach 5%, said Tuesday the Deputy Chairman of the Board of VTB 24 Anatoly Pechatnikov.
“In this situation, loans “payday” and for the development of small business became more in demand, and to get them to the representatives of microbusiness can often only pawn shops,” explains Lazutin. And although pawnshops Deposit required, interest on the loans are lower and real incomes and credit history of no value, he adds. All of these factors likely will retain their influence in the next quarter, experts predict, so it is expected further growth of the market of pawn shops are by the end of the year it may exceed 100%.
